When Pakistan and Saudi Arabia inked their Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement last week, it caught many by surprise. For the first time, the two countries have formalised in a treaty what was always understood informally: Their security interests are deeply connected. On paper, it looks like a pact between old friends, a pledge that an attack on one will be treated as an attack on both. But geopolitically, it has unleashed a Pandora’s box of questions about nuclear guarantees, Arab rivalries, and India’s shrinking space for manoeuvre in a volatile region. For New Delhi, it presents a strategic puzzle with no easy answers.
The military relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is not new. Pakistani troops were initially deployed to guard Mecca and Medina in the 1960s. They trained Saudi pilots, protected royal palaces, and even stationed an entire division on Saudi soil. In return, Saudi money kept Pakistan’s economy afloat and, many believe, helped bankroll its nuclear programme when sanctions hit hard. Despite such closeness, the relationship had no written treaty. Even when Riyadh asked for help in Yemen in 2015, Pakistan’s parliament balked, demonstrating that there were limits. The new pact erases some of those limits.
For Pakistan, the timing of the deal could not be better. Since Operation Sindoor in May this year, Islamabad has been juggling its external ties with great agility. Surprisingly, it has managed to keep all its great-power friendships intact. It remains close to China, the old “all-weather friend,” while also mending fences with Washington, which still sees Pakistan as useful in Afghanistan and now in West Asia. Even Russia, once cool, has shown interest through energy talks and military exchanges.
The pact with Saudi Arabia pushes Pakistan onto a bigger stage. It is no longer just a South Asian regional power; it is now part of the West Asian security architecture. That brings prestige, visibility, and crucially, much-needed Saudi financial support for an economy under strain.
At home, the agreement feeds a powerful narrative that Pakistani leaders have long cultivated – that Pakistan is not just another regional state, but the guardian of Islam’s sacred heartland.
To the public, the narrative holds sway. The treaty supports the notion that Pakistan is the protector of the Muslim world, which successive governments have desperately sought to assert.
For Saudi Arabia, the reasons for signing the pact are clear. For decades, Saudi Arabia counted on American power to shield it from threats. But Washington is now distracted, more focused on Ukraine and the Asia-Pacific than on the Gulf. Recent Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, Syria, Iran, and Qatar have unsettled the region. In addition, Iran’s proxies, especially the Houthis in Yemen, have demonstrated that they are capable of knocking out Saudi oil facilities with a handful of drones.
These shocks pushed Riyadh to seek new guarantees. By signing a pact with Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, the Saudis have gained both prestige and, in theory, a nuclear umbrella. Even if Pakistan never actually fires a missile on behalf of Riyadh, the mere uncertainty over whether it might do so creates doubt in the minds of the adversaries.
But how credible is the pact? Analysts are sceptical. Would Pakistan really risk its own survival by launching nuclear weapons on behalf of Saudi Arabia? It is hard to imagine Islamabad going that far. That is why many see the pact as symbolic. Its power lies in its ambiguity. Keeping adversaries guessing raises the cost of aggression. It is not an ironclad guarantee of Pakistani intervention, but it muddies the waters enough to buy both countries some breathing space.
The bigger danger for Pakistan is that it could now be dragged into quarrels that do not directly concern it. Until recently, its role was limited — guarding holy sites, training Saudi forces, and providing expertise. Now, the pact signals a willingness to step into conflicts beyond its borders. That could mean being pulled into Saudi feuds with Iran, or even drawn into confrontations with Israel.
Already, Pakistani officials hint that other Gulf monarchies are exploring similar deals. That could mean more money and influence. But it could also mean entanglement in wars far from home, at a time when Pakistan’s domestic scene is anything but stable.
Meanwhile, the big powers are watching. Washington has not raised objections. In fact, the US may even quietly approve. From its perspective, if Pakistan helps reassure Riyadh, the Saudis will be less tempted to chase their own bomb or lean too heavily on Russia or China. In that sense, Pakistan is subcontracting deterrence in a way that suits American interests, so long as it does not destabilise Israel.
China’s reaction is more complicated. Beijing is Pakistan’s closest ally and is also building strong ties with Riyadh. But it was also the one that brokered the 2023 thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran. A pact that looks openly hostile to Tehran risks undoing that work. China may see advantages in anything that reduces American dominance, but it does not want a war in the Gulf. Its silence suggests careful hedging.
For India, the pact is unsettling and a strategic setback. Pakistan’s defence minister has admitted that its “nuclear capabilities” are now tied to Saudi Arabia’s defence. This is the first time Pakistan has openly talked about extending nuclear deterrence beyond its borders. Saudi Arabia’s past funding of Pakistan’s nuclear programme has always been whispered about. Now the link is explicit. Pakistan may feel emboldened to provoke India, believing Riyadh’s backing will complicate India’s response.
On the surface, Indian officials have kept calm. They say the pact was expected and that they will “study its implications.” They point to India’s own growing ties with Saudi Arabia and quietly remind Riyadh of its sensitivities. Yet behind the cautious words lies a sense of disappointment. Just when New Delhi believed it was moving closer to the kingdom, Riyadh has chosen to stand firmly with Pakistan on core security issues.
Geopolitically, the pact reveals that the boundaries between South Asia and West Asia are fading. Conflicts and alliances now cut across regions, linking Islamabad and Riyadh. India’s western frontier has grown more complicated. It muddies the nuclear equation and injects Riyadh into every confrontation with Islamabad. That, more than anything, captures the real significance of this agreement.
The author is Director of the MMAJ Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi
