The TVK surge and the Dravidian compact: Lessons from Madurai Central

On arriving in Madurai, what struck me first was the heat: In searing temperatures marked by record humidity, campaigning was impossible for most hours of the day. Yet, candidates trudged along, handkerchiefs in party colours soaked over the course of rallies and roadshows, door-to-door campaigns and temple visits, each trying to outdo the other in terms of the crowds they attracted and the viral allegations they could level at each other.

An otherwise routine election turned acrimonious when Sundar C levelled allegations of fiscal impropriety on the part of PTR and his team, accusing him of a 200 crore rupee scam that was emblematic of how little the minister, shifted from finance into the relatively lower profile IT ministry in 2023, had done for the constituency. A war of words ensued, with PTR hitting back at Sundar C and his actress-turned-politician wife, Khushbu Sundar, who joined the BJP after stints in the Congress and the DMK, of being “cinema sanghis”. At one point, the indie dogs rescued by PTR were accused of biting visitors to his home, offered as evidence of his inaccessibility to the people of the constituency.

A serendipitous pivot arrived with the hurriedly-called special session of Parliament on delimitation and women’s reservation on the 16th and 17th of April. Chief Minister M K Stalin called the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill a “black law” and burned it as part of a “black shirts” protest across the state. For PTR, this was an opportunity to reframe the election as a fight to protect the Dravidian ethos against New Delhi’s imperialist overreach and to label the AIADMK, which backed the bill, a traitor to the Tamil people.

Amidst these competing narratives was interwoven an electoral strand that had been initially dismissed. Joseph Vijay had captured the imagination of young people across the state in a manner unlike ever seen before: Surveys that had pegged his TVK at 10 per cent suddenly had him clocking 20 per cent statewide, with 50 per cent to 60 per cent of voters under 30 backing him. In Madurai Central, the TVK’s candidate, Madhar Badhurudeen, known as V M S Mustafa, climbed to second place in many polls against established rivals, polling at over 20 per cent despite addressing fewer rallies in a week than his opponents addressed in a day.

The contest’s human texture was most legible in two encounters. In the common room of the Kalaignar Centenary Library, where students bring their own books and the ceiling fans work harder than the air conditioning, a group of civil services aspirants had already made up their minds — for TVK, not because Vijay was a star they admired, though most of them were fans, but because they felt, with a quiet certainty, that something different was possible. In the market by the Meenakshi Amman temple, a young Muslim trans man offered a sharply different calculation: To vote TVK in a first-past-the-post contest, he said, was to split a vote the DMK needed. The protection of minorities in Tamil Nadu was not an abstraction for him.

Then came the eve of the election, and the contrast between the two campaigns became impossible to ignore. Reports filtered in of money moving through the constituency: A thousand rupees per vote for the two-leaves symbol, distributed through networks operated by professors and students bussed into Madurai from across the state to compensate for the lack of a local party machinery. A day before polling, Madurai High Court advocate S Vanchinathan publicly alleged that both Sundar C and Khushbu Sundar had concealed three companies used for their film production businesses from their filed affidavits; companies that, he alleged, had been used to hide over 600 crores in revenues from tax authorities.

The closing rally for Sundar C was the curtain call this production deserved: Despite weeks of social media hype projecting unstoppable momentum, the rally itself was small, a deflating contrast to the noise generated online, with more BJP flags in the crowd than AIADMK ones. The operation had the feel of a machine that had confused its own propaganda for reality.

PTR’s closing speech, by contrast, was notable for what it did not contain. In a campaign fought without distributing a rupee (a claim made across three elections since 2016 and backed by independent observers), he told voters, while holding back tears, that the trust built over a lifetime of public service was not something that could be bought or exchanged for a thousand rupees a vote. It was the only inheritance worth protecting.

If early numbers are anything to go by, that inheritance has failed to hold. PTR is locked in a tight battle with Mustafa in a fight to retain the constituency for a third term. Sundar C, despite the money that moved through the constituency and the BJP’s borrowed muscle, is trailing at third place. The gap between the hype and the result is itself the story: a well-funded, socially amplified campaign could not outrun candidates who staked their elections on ideology and platform alone.

What Madurai Central has demonstrated is something with implications that travel well beyond Tamil Nadu. For the INDIA bloc, which goes into 2029 facing a ruling alliance with no reluctance to deploy state resources and money power in electoral contests, this result offers a different kind of data point: That the cynical arithmetic of money and muscle has a ceiling, and that a politics rooted in values and principles can still hold its ground.

Whether the DMK’s Dravidian compact endures, whether TVK’s idealist surge compounds into seats in the long run, whether the INDIA bloc can stitch these energies into a national coalition — these are questions for another election. But Madurai Central has offered, quietly and clearly, a reason to believe that they are worth asking.

The writer is national spokesperson, NCP (SP)