Opinion Three sides to every story

But is it all that easy? The Bihar CM privately knows that the “Nitish factor” has been diluted since the last Lok Sabha elections,in which the NDA won 32 of Bihar’s 40 seats. Lalu and Paswan — both no longer Central ministers — will go all out,working their caste arithmetic with Muslims,Yadavs,Dalits and disenchanted upper castes. The Congress,with only 10 seats in a 243-member House currently,expects a bit of UP magic,led by AICC in-charge Mukul Wasnik,a Dalit,and state Congress president,Choudhary Mehboob Ali Qaisar. Fringe parties and some influential independents will bid for a hung Assembly,so that they can extract their pound of flesh. And why forget JD(U) rebel Lalan Singh,who has sided with the Congress even without resigning from his parent party? Or the Saran belt Rajput leader and former JD(U) MP Prabhunath Singh,now with Lalu’s RJD?

So what is Nitish up to? He knows,in hindsight,that development alone cannot be a plank in caste-ridden Bihar society. Unlike Lalu or Paswan — who can recite 100 castes in a single breath — Nitish seldom mentions castes directly. But with his election strategists,he is as good at it as his principal opponents; “double-distilled Ramvilas and triple-refined Lalu”,some here call him. After all,he’s managed to become a pan-Bihar leader,now extending his popularity at the national level,despite belonging to a caste (Kurmis) that account for less than 3 per cent of the state’s population. He’ll bank on his new Mahadalit (21 scheduled castes) and “extremely backward classes” (34 per cent) constituencies; if he divides OBCs,upper castes and Muslims,he’ll sail through. The biggest hitch is the 16 per cent that are upper-caste,whom Nitish is desperate to win over. Lalan Singh,a Bhumihar and Prabhunath,a Rajput,have been campaigning for a year now,warning of Nitish’s intention to bring in laws that can give permanent land rights to tillers. But JD(U) state president Bijay Kumar Choudhary says: “We leave it to the discretion of well-educated voters (read upper castes) to judge Nitish’s rule.” As for Nitish,he prefers to not to discuss it,not wanting to give it legitimacy as a potential poll issue.

Meanwhile,the RJD definitely did not want to pit “rubber-stamp” Rabri Devi against the suave and eloquent Nitish. For a while,there was talk of Vaishali MP and former minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh being projected as a CM nominee,to wean away upper caste votes from the NDA. But eventually it came back to Lalu Prasad himself. A problem: “NDA can now raise ‘Lalu rule’ fear in a more pronounced way. RJD-LJP should not have projected anyone,confusing voters and political adversaries”,said veteran columnist Surendra Kishore.

And Lalu’s assurances that “past mistakes would not be repeated” have not done him any good. “Now that Laluji has decided not to repeat past mistakes,voters can decide the same way as well”,replied Nitish. Lalu and Paswan,however,are trying hard to convince people otherwise. “There is corruption all around. Teachers are beaten,the poor are harassed by police and bureaucrats insult MLAs. Nitish’s supreme arrogance will cause his doom,” said Lalu Prasad,elaborating his election plans to “expose” the NDA government with facts and figures and not just his usual rustic jokes. Just as he effected Indian Railways’ turnaround,he said,he would change Bihar.

Paswan,meanwhile,has focused on the Mahadalit issue,saying that Scheduled Caste people got no special benefits. “The Constitution has provided for better care of these castes on the social margin. Has he given any extra reservations to them?” asked Paswan. Paswan also claims upper caste support,calling them “bulldozers” whose disgruntlement could raze a government. If Paswan’s LJP was reduced from 29 to 9 seats between the February 2005 and the November 2005 elections,it was mainly because of the upper castes venting their ire against him.

The Congress,meanwhile,is going it alone,wanting out of the shadow of long-time poll partner RJD. It contested the September 2009 Assembly by-poll alone,and improved its voting percentage from 4 to 14 per cent. With so many defectors like Sadhu Yadav and Ranjita Ranjan and Lovely Anand,besides its committed old horses like Ashok Ram,Awadesh Ram,Mahachandra Singh and Ramjatan Sinha,it is attempting to recover its old base. According to spokesperson Premchanda Mishra: “We are an old party and are at Centre,we are trying to offer people choice from one-man parties.”

Finally,it will boil down to Nitish versus Lalu,Sushil Modi versus Pashupati Paras,Nitish’ social engineering versus the Lalu-Paswan base vote — with the Congress trying to make it a triangle. The NDA looks ahead. The only question is: will its opponents succeed in making its majority hang by a thread? If they’re 20 seats short,then the RJD-LJP,the Congress and parties of all hues and shapes will try to oust Nitish. But there are no clear signs of that yet.

santosh.singh@expressindia.com