Opinion The Bangladesh election outcome is a foregone conclusion

Despite accusations of democratic backsliding, what the ruling Awami League has going for itself are its policies and performance that alone should have given it an edge in the elections

In light of all of these, and considering the strength of the ruling party and the weak opposition, it can be said that the electoral outcome in Bangladesh is predictable. The winds are blowing in favour of the Awami League.

Written by: Sanjay K Bhardwaj

5 min readDec 27, 2023 10:02 AM IST First published on: Dec 27, 2023 at 07:07 AM IST

From its turbulent beginning in 1971 to the military rule after the assassination of Mujibur Rahman in 1975, to caretaker governments and political alliances following the restoration of democracy in 1990, Bangladesh’s politics has been in a state of churn over the past five decades. With its 12th jatiya sansad elections coming up on January 7, there has been pressure on the country by extra-regional powers like the US, the UK, Japan, and Australia to have free, fair, transparent, participatory and meaningful elections – one that gives viable space to the opposition.

The Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has ruled Bangladesh since 2009. A cadre-based party, AL has a pan-Bangladesh presence and stands ostensibly for secular, democratic and progressive values. One of its main opposition parties is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) alliance, which represents the right-of-centre parties/forces. It is supported by radical, orthodox political forces, like Jamaat-e-Islami (now barred from participating in the electoral process). In the forthcoming elections, the BNP has announced its decision to boycott the elections in the face of crackdowns by the government on opposition parties. One of BNP’s major demands has been free, fair and inclusive elections, that is especially relevant in the context of the government suppressing dissent by allowing arrests of members of the opposition and crippling their campaign by locking up, threatening and brutally attacking their supporters. Issues like corruption and inflation have also been linked to the protests and boycotts.

Despite accusations of democratic backsliding, what the ruling AL has going for itself are its policies and performance that alone should have given it an edge in the elections. Bangladesh is expected to become a middle-income country by 2041 and is on track to graduate from the UN’s Least Developed Countries (LDC) list by 2026. As compared to other South Asian countries, Bangladesh finds itself above average on the parameters of the Human Development Index. An October World Bank report says extreme poverty has decreased from 9 per cent in 2016 to 5 per cent in 2022. The Sheikh Hasina regime has worked on a good number of infrastructure projects with major countries like India (Maitree Super Thermal Power Project in Rampal, India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline) and China (Karnaphuli tunnel, Padma Bridge rail link projects).

A seven-party alliance, Ganatantra Mancha, consisting of Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD-Rab), Nagorik Oikya, Biplobi Workers Party, Gono Odhikar Parishad, Bhasani Onusari Parishad, Rastra Sangskar Andolon and Gonosanghati Andolon has posed similar questions as BNP regarding free and fair elections. BNP’s decision to abstain has also made election watchers and activists apprehensive that in its absence, hardline Islamist groups might step in to fill the void.

There’s another interesting phenomenon that has emerged ahead of the elections – the rise of what is being considered to be the “king’s party” or “king’s candidates” – the formation of a party or coalition with the support or patronage of the party in power to win elections. Despite their refutation, parties like Trinamool BNP (founded by former BNP minister barrister Nazmul Huda), Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM) and Bangladesh Supreme Party (BSP) are being termed as “king’s party”. Trinamool BNP is contesting 140 seats. BNP’s former ally Bangladesh Kalyan Party, and others like Bangladesh Congress and National People’s Party, are also contesting elections. The leaders of nine Islamic political parties (Bangladesh Islami Front, Bangladesh Khilafat Andolan, Islami Oikya Jote Bangladesh Muslim League, Islamic Front Bangladesh, Bangladesh Supreme Party, Aashiqeen-e- Awlia Oikya Parishad and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh) have also met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and decided to participate in the elections. In 2018, a similar alternative had emerged in the form of the Jukta Front or the United Front, under the initiative of Badruddoza Chowdhury. Most of the candidates had joined the Awami League after their victory. There has been speculation that these new fronts might follow a similar pattern after the election as they lack the ability to be a credible alternative to AL.

In total, 1,896 candidates from 27 political parties and independent candidates are contesting for the 300 seats. The Awami League’s 14-party grand alliance is contesting in 263 seats. It has also reached a seat-sharing consensus with Jatiya Party – once its opponent – that has 26 seats allocated to it.

The US has been appreciative of Bangladesh’s developmental agenda, while remaining critical about the autocratic tendencies of the ruling party. One may argue that due to the US imposing sanctions and visa restrictions on Bangladesh, it has provided the country a reason to incline towards China. In any case, to allay fears of malpractice and as a response to the extra-regional pressure, after the announcement of the elections, Bangladesh’s chief election commissioner Kazi Habibur Awal has reshuffled district administrative and police officers to ensure free, fair, transparent and participatory elections. Bangladesh’s Sena Bahini will also be deployed from December 29 for 13 days to ensure that the polls happen peacefully.

The writer is professor, School of International Studies, JNU