The announcement of an alliance between Shiv Sena (UBT) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) for the forthcoming municipal corporation election in Mumbai is creating ripples in Maharashtra. In the recent past, both parties have jointly opposed the decision to introduce a compulsory Hindi language subject in the primary schools. The success in forcing a retreat to the Fadnavis government on this issue has convinced their supporters and many secular civil society groups about the importance and inevitability of a political alliance. In this context, the decision by politically estranged Thackeray cousins to join hands was not unexpected. Yet this is the most significant political development in the state in the last year.
Since the rout of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Sena (UBT), Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) in the last assembly election, the entire Opposition has been in disarray. With many within the state Congress blaming the alliance with the Sena (UBT) for the party’s worst electoral performance, the fate of the grand Opposition alliance was hanging by a thread. At one point, the state Congress also announced its decision to go solo in the BMC elections, which was neither endorsed nor rejected by its high command. Now, a formal announcement of an alliance by Uddhav and Raj has informally buried the MVA, even though NCP (SP) might join the new political front. In fact, speculations are ripe that Sharad Pawar is the glue of this alliance. However, NCP (SP) itself is breathing for survival, with Ajit Pawar scoring emphatic wins in the first round of local body elections in the state. The political dynamics in the state have been slowly but steadily moving towards Ajit Pawar’s NCP occupying an opposition space despite being in the ruling alliance. With Amit Shah making the BJP’s intentions clear about contesting the next assembly election on its own, Ajit Pawar is preparing his NCP to emerge as a credible political force by 2029.
His party has already swallowed much of the NCP (SP) in the last year. Now, he has been emerging as a threat both to the Sena (UBT) and the Congress. In this backdrop, the UBT-MNS alliance can be considered as a last-ditch effort by the trio of Sharad Pawar, Uddhav and Raj to remain politically relevant in the state, while Congress continues to commit harakiri.
The immediate question, however, is how much fight the UBT-MNS alliance can put up against the BJP-Eknath Shinde front in Mumbai. An Opposition alliance victory in Mumbai can nullify all the gains of the ruling parties in the local bodies across the state. It has the potential to change the political narratives. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis knows it better than anyone else.
In 2017, the last corporation election in Mumbai, the BJP and Shiv Sena contested separately, with the latter scraping through a victory in a nail-biting finish. BJP was a close runner-up with an impressive tally. But it was then the united Shiv Sena. Now, Uddhav’s party is trying to make up for the losses caused by Shinde by allying with his estranged cousin. On the other hand, the UBT-MNS alliance has opened up a bargaining space for the Shinde-led Sena to forge an alliance with the BJP.
Contrary to the prevalent perception, today, Shinde does not seem to have much relevance to split the “Marathi Manoos” votes in Mumbai. BJP’s aggressive Hindutva with the development plank has already cornered Uddhav Thackeray. Rather, it is a testing time for Raj Thackeray. His Marathi middle-class support base overlaps with pro-Narendra Modi supporters. Uddhav and Raj are trying to win over this constituency by making a Mumbai-Marathi-Maharashtra plank. Even if they succeed in consolidating most of the Marathi voters (about 40 per cent of total votes), there is no guarantee of the minority community’s votes for them.
The minorities in the state have started voting tactically, not to defeat the BJP, but to keep their local leaders politically relevant. These local minority leaders are increasingly aligning themselves with Shinde-led Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, mainly to get their “work done” in the district collectorate. It makes Shinde an important player in Mumbai. Only a combative Congress has some potential to neutralise this impact in Mumbai, which is an unlikely proposition.
Under such adverse political conditions, the biggest challenge for the Sena (UBT)-MNS combine is to spread the message of longevity of their alliance, in the face of a possibly narrow victory or a probability of a decisive defeat.
The writer is an Associate Professor at MIT-SOG, Pune. Views are personal
The minorities in the state have started voting tactically, not to defeat the BJP, but to keep their local leaders politically relevant
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