Opinion Taiwan’s Trump dilemma
Between US equivocation and China’s aggression, Taiwan is running out of options
Caught between two competing nationalisms, Taiwan’s 23 million people face shrinking room to manoeuvre. Taipei aspires to determine its own future, but Trump’s equivocation is only narrowing its options (File Photo) The second Donald Trump presidency has placed Taiwan in an increasingly precarious position with a series of statements casting doubt on Washington’s commitment to its obligations. Under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, the United States is bound to help Taiwan defend itself. While Washington remains Taipei’s largest supplier of defence equipment and technology, Trump’s transactional approach has unsettled Taiwanese leaders.
In a recent Fox News interview, Trump claimed that Xi Jinping had assured him during a phone call that “China would not invade Taiwan while Trump is in office.” If taken at face value, the remark suggests that Beijing is simply waiting for Trump to leave office before acting — a chilling implication that places added urgency on Taiwan to strengthen its own defences. Acknowledging this reality, the Taiwanese foreign ministry noted, “Taiwan must rely on itself for its security.” But the question remains: Is the island truly capable of doing so?
Since William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) assumed the presidency, Chinese air force incursions near Taiwan have risen by 300 per cent. Lai was also forced to cancel a planned stopover in the United States during his recent trip to Paraguay, Guatemala, and Belize, after the Trump administration denied permission in anticipation of a potential Trump–Xi meeting. By contrast, his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, had managed a similar transit in 2023.
Meanwhile, Lai’s government has intensified military exercises and is pushing to raise defence spending from 3 per cent of GDP to 5 per cent by 2030. Chinese military posturing has also escalated, with more frequent warship and aircraft manoeuvres across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing has branded Lai a “separatist” and a “troublemaker,” underscoring its determination to pursue reunification.
Trump’s policies extend beyond security. On trade, he has applied pressure on Taipei by tying tariffs to semiconductor investments. He has suggested that if Taiwan wants the same 15 per cent tariff rate as Japan and South Korea, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) must invest $400 billion in the United States and acquire a 49 per cent stake in Intel. Such demands echo his earlier accusations that Taiwan had “stolen” the chip industry from America.
This erosion of goodwill has affected Taiwanese perceptions of the United States. A survey conducted in April 2025 found that only 23.1 per cent of respondents considered the US “trustworthy” or “very trustworthy” — down from 33.6 per cent in June 2024, when Joe Biden was in office.
Beijing, for its part, has remained consistent in its rhetoric. The Chinese Foreign Ministry insists that “the Taiwan issue is purely an internal affair of China.” In his 2025 New Year’s speech, Xi Jinping declared: “The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification.” For Xi, reunification is essential to the “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
Caught between two competing nationalisms, Taiwan’s 23 million people face shrinking room to manoeuvre. Taipei aspires to determine its own future, but Trump’s equivocation is only narrowing its options.
The writer is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University
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