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Over Taiwan, China and Japan are playing a risky game

China has responded to the Japanese PM's remarks about Taiwan in a manner consistent with past confrontations, leveraging both economic and military pressure

China and Japan had only recently resumed seafood trade following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. (File Photo)

4 min readDec 18, 2025 08:29 AM IST First published on: Dec 18, 2025 at 08:29 AM IST

Japan-China ties have continued to deteriorate for over a month following a statement by Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, asserting that Tokyo would intervene in the event of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan. The remark marked the first time since World War II that a Japanese PM has openly linked the Taiwan crisis to a potential deployment of the Japanese Self-Defence Forces (SDF). China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, responded sharply, underscoring that “China must resolutely hit back — not only to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also to defend the hard-won post-war achievements secured with blood and sacrifice”. Beijing has maintained that Tokyo crossed a red line, and the dispute has since reached the United Nations.

China has responded in a manner consistent with past confrontations, leveraging both economic and military pressure. Beyond Taiwan, longstanding territorial disputes with Japan have once again become theatres for Chinese displays of strength. In a recent incident, Chinese and Japanese vessels were involved in a tense encounter near the Senkaku Islands. Japan has also lodged complaints that Chinese fighter jets directed fire-control radars at Japanese aircraft near Okinawa. An article in China Daily asserted that “it is crucial for Takaichi to retract her misguided remarks, especially at this highly sensitive time, as they risk paving the way for a revival of militarism that can threaten regional peace”.

The economic repercussions have been swift. China is Japan’s second-largest export destination, accounting for exports worth approximately $125 billion in 2025. Beijing has postponed the release of two Japanese films and cancelled several Japanese musical performances, including one by Maki Otsuki that was halted mid-song. Japan, meanwhile, is a major destination for Chinese tourists, and the period following Takaichi’s remarks has seen a noticeable decline in tourist flows. China has also issued a travel advisory urging its citizens not to visit Japan.

Trade has been similarly affected. China and Japan had only recently resumed seafood trade following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. In response to the current dispute, however, Beijing has imposed a ban on Japanese seafood imports. A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry remarked that “there would be no market for Japanese seafood in the current climate even if Japan were able to export it to China” — a clear attempt to exert economic pressure on Tokyo.

For President Xi Jinping, Taiwan remains a “sacred territory”, with reunification framed as central to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Beijing has forcefully demanded a withdrawal of Takaichi’s statement — a demand Tokyo has refused. While the Japanese PM has characterised her remarks as “hypothetical”, they nonetheless signal a willingness to support Taiwan’s assertion of greater sovereignty. More importantly, they challenge Beijing’s insistence that tensions across the Taiwan Strait are purely an internal Chinese matter.

Even as a hypothetical, the statement raises the possibility that, in the event of Chinese aggression, regional powers may no longer remain passive. It reflects the broader shifts underway in East Asian geopolitics, where China’s increasingly assertive posture under Xi has generated growing unease among its neighbours. The more Beijing seeks to impose its will on Taiwan, the greater the risk that it will fuel regional instability.

The writer is associate professor, O P Jindal Global University

Gunjan Singh

Gunjan Singh is an associate professor in O P Jindal Global University Read More