Opinion Ram mandir or beneficiaries — what will be the BJP’s poll plank in the Lok Sabha elections?

First, the timing of the temple inauguration in the election year. Second, the belief that the BJP usually mixes religious sentiments with electoral politics. Third, the way the BJP and Sangh Parivar cadres have been engaged in making the temple inauguration a public event, it seems likely that it to be the central focus of the party’s campaign.

But as we know, politics is a game of chess where most easy conclusions fail to suffice. My assessment as an analyst is that the temple’s inauguration in Ayodhya may not be the primary discourse for the BJP. It will be part of their agenda but their election campaign may revolve around the issue of “beneficiaries”, extending to embrace the party’s mega narrative of economic growth and development.

Why am I saying this? It’s because the BJP has created a huge group of beneficiaries through its various developmental schemes in the last 10 years, managing to convert them into a long-term vote bank, unlike the Congress or other parties in Opposition. The BJP did it through constant mobilisation efforts to forge connections with these beneficiaries. During our fieldwork in different parts of India, we observed that a beneficiary consciousness has emerged that works beyond caste and religious loyalties and has become a mainstay for the BJP over the last decade. One can observe that even during the run-up to the consecration, PM Modi is constantly focusing on these beneficiaries. From Ayodhya to Varanasi, it has been a salient feature of his visits to different parts of India, including in the south and west.

The effective implementation of central government schemes and the steady launch of new ones has integrated the four castes that the PM constantly emphasises — the poor, women, peasants and youths. Together, they forge a huge vote bank for the coming election. The temple in Ayodhya will, of course, feature as one of the most important implementations of the BJP’s vision. It will create long-term political capital for the party whether or not the party chooses to make it its election plank.

But their focus on beneficiaries will serve crucial ends — it will be a symbol of development, a substantial example of the impact of the Modi-led government in the last 10 years and a possibility of their transformation into a vote bank as well as booth-level cadres, mostly from Dalits, tribals, OBCs and other marginalised communities.

The delivery of electoral promises work as important feathers in the caps of political parties. But in most cases, it does not translate into mobilisational impact. I am not arguing that the inauguration of the Ram mandir will not contribute to BJP’s electoral performance. It will strengthen the BJP-Modi trust value, which will influence electoral results one way or the other. But beneficiaries will remain at the core of the Modi-led growth, development and social welfare narrative.

The Narendra Modi-led BJP’s politics is no longer the politics of religion versus economy but a combination of the two, their focus shifting from time to time based on the political context and requirement of the hour.

The writer is director, G B Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad