Last week, two major global events took place in two important Global South countries — the G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, and the COP 30 in Belém, Brazil. The Belém summit was billed as the largest in three decades, with more than 56,000 delegates participating from more than 190 countries. The prestigious G20 summit was attended by leaders from 20 member countries, which included 13 heads of state.
While both summits were successful optics-wise, there is an important underlying reality with respect to the outcomes and messaging. They were marred by the absence of several big powers. While the US, given President Donald Trump’s aversion to the Paris Agreement, was conspicuous by its absence, China, Russia and India, too, had a relatively low-key presence. The G20 was also not very different. Of the 20 member-country heads, seven — the US, China, Russia, Argentina, Mexico, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia — did not turn up.
The summits failed to rise to the challenges the world is facing. The Belém Declaration did not even mention phasing out fossil fuels, despite more than 80 countries demanding tighter controls on them. It may be a coincidence that successive COP summits since 2023 have been held in petroleum-exporting states — 2022 in Egypt, 2023 in the UAE, 2024 in Azerbaijan, and 2025 in Brazil. COP31 will be held in Turkey. The Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) for emissions controls also fell far short of the requirement for containing global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2035, while the rules under the Paris Agreement, mandated to verify and monitor greenhouse emissions, remained weak or stalled. Governance of critical minerals was removed from the agenda. At most, the progress on the climate front after COP30 can be called incremental and far from transformative.
The 30-page, 122-point Johannesburg Leaders Declaration faced a boycott from the US and opposition from its close ally, Argentina. Unusually, it was adopted at the beginning of the summit rather than at the end, probably with the intention of preventing more countries from joining the American bandwagon. Despite South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s bravado, the declaration remained by far the weakest, with minimal references to contentious geopolitical issues like the Ukraine-Russia conflict. On Gaza and the Middle East, it opted for vague language without mentioning parties or actions.
When India hosted the G20 two years ago, it brought all parties, including the US, Russia and China, to agree to the powerful declaration that did not mince words in talking about the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts. In Johannesburg, India played a proactive role by adding several game-changing proposals to the declaration, like the Global Traditional Knowledge Digital Repository, Global Healthcare Rapid Response Team, Open Satellite Data Partnership, Critical Minerals Circularity Initiative, and a global initiative to counter the drug-terror nexus. Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the cynosure of all eyes, holding individual meetings with eight heads of nations and building bilateral and trilateral forums on important issues. President Ramaphosa said, “India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, has rightfully captured the maximum limelight at this G20 summit.”
While it wasn’t a great summit for the G20, it undoubtedly turned out to be the best one for India. India needs to understand this contradiction. Important multilateral forums that emerged as voices of the Global South in the last few years are increasingly seen as losing relevance. By their absence and disinterest, big powers like the US and China are betraying their discomfort with the rise of the Global South and a multipolar world order. Just before his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea last month, Trump resurrected the ghost of bipolarity through a post on social media: “The G2 will be convening shortly.” Many, including India, the EU and African countries, responded warily to Trump’s G2 rhetoric. India needs to take the challenge more seriously. If multipolarity is to survive, India needs to use its status and goodwill to lead the Global South from the front. The BRICS mantle it takes over next year will provide an excellent opportunity to resist the return of hegemonic politics and promote genuine multipolarity.
The writer, president, India Foundation, is with the BJP
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