Putin’s 30-day halt on attacks: An act of good faith or preparation to strike harder?

Despite Russia’s claim of a pause, Ukraine’s energy grid remains under attack. Reports from the ground confirm that Russian forces have continued targeting power stations, substations, and critical energy distribution points. The only difference is the method: If direct strikes on power plants seem to have slowed, Russia is still systematically attacking transmission infrastructure and gas storage facilities.

We’ve seen this strategy before. Russia doesn’t stop its assaults — it only shifts its tactics. Instead of daily missile barrages, it has increased the use of drones, long-range cruise missiles, and sabotage attempts inside Ukraine. Putin’s regime understands that energy warfare is as crucial as military battles on the front lines. By keeping Ukraine’s power grid unstable, Russia not only weakens its adversary’s war effort but also sows fear and instability among civilians.

A pause in attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector also conveniently follows months of devastating Russian strikes. By early March, Russian forces had already inflicted extensive damage, forcing Ukraine to ration power and import emergency electricity from neighbouring countries. The so-called moratorium, then, is less an act of restraint and more a period in which Russia allows the effects of its previous strikes to set in.

A strategic delay

Far from being an act of goodwill, this pause serves three key Russian objectives: Stockpiling weapons, repositioning military forces, and undermining Ukraine’s defences.

First, Russia needs time to replenish its arsenal. The relentless missile and drone barrages over the winter months depleted some of Russia’s stockpiles. A temporary halt gives Putin’s military time to manufacture and procure more missiles, including long-range Kalibr cruise missiles and Iranian-made Shahed drones, which have played a devastating role in Russia’s aerial warfare against Ukraine.

Second, this pause allows Russia to study Ukraine’s air defence patterns. By temporarily halting major strikes, Russia can observe how Ukraine reallocates its defensive resources and identify weak points. When the attacks resume, they will likely be even more precise and destructive, aimed at whatever vulnerabilities Russia has identified during this so-called ceasefire.

Finally, Russia is buying time to test Western resolve. The timing of this pause is no accident. It coincides with continued delays in US military aid to Ukraine, as political wrangling in Washington has slowed the delivery of desperately needed weapons and air defense systems. If Russia can create an illusion of stability, it may discourage Western leaders from approving additional support, making Ukraine even more vulnerable when the next wave of attacks begins.

The psychological warfare component

Beyond its military and logistical benefits, this false moratorium also serves as a powerful tool in Putin’s psychological war against Ukraine. By pretending to pause attacks, Russia hopes to lull Ukraine (unlikely as Ukrainians have wised up since 2014 to Russia’s habit of speaking with two mouths) into a false sense of security, encouraging Ukrainian forces to shift their defensive priorities elsewhere. When the attacks resume in full force, the shock factor will be even greater.

Additionally, this tactic allows Russia to manipulate the narrative in international diplomatic circles. By claiming to show restraint, the Kremlin can position itself as a more “reasonable” actor while framing Ukraine as the aggressor if Kyiv launches preemptive strikes on Russian military targets. This is classic disinformation warfare — shifting blame and shaping the international conversation to weaken support for Ukraine.

What happens next?

Make no mistake — this so-called pause will end with a fresh and brutal wave of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. The only question is when.

If past patterns hold, we can expect a renewed offensive shortly after Russia has completed its current missile production and repositioned its forces. The strikes will likely coincide with upcoming Russian military offensives on the battlefield, aiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and morale just as new troop movements begin.

This also means Ukraine must act now. The country should use this period to strengthen its energy infrastructure, accelerate repairs on damaged facilities, and push harder for Western military aid — including more air defence systems like Patriot and NASAMS batteries. Every day of this so-called moratorium should be treated as an opportunity to prepare for the next onslaught.

The West must not fall for Putin’s tricks

Western policymakers should not be fooled by Putin’s deception. This is not a de-escalation — it is a strategic feint. The worst mistake the US and its allies could make would be to interpret this as a sign that Russia is moderating its tactics. In fact, the opposite is true.

The only real way to protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is to provide the country with more advanced air defence systems, long-range strike capabilities, and the resources to keep its energy grid resilient in the face of Russian aggression. Any delay in military aid only plays into Putin’s hands.

Moreover, the West must be prepared for a coordinated Russian offensive that goes beyond Ukraine’s energy grid. This could include cyberattacks, escalated missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, and further economic warfare. The response must be preemptive, not reactive — waiting for the next round of Russian attacks before sending aid will only result in more unnecessary suffering.

A familiar pattern of Russian deception

Putin’s 30-day moratorium is neither a sign of restraint nor a genuine effort at de-escalation — it is a calculated move designed to give Russia the upper hand. Ukraine and its allies must treat it as the deception it is, using this time to bolster defences, accelerate aid delivery, and prepare for the next, inevitable wave of Russian attacks.

If history has taught us anything about Putin’s war strategy, it is this: Whenever Russia appears to be pulling back, it is merely preparing to strike harder.

The road ahead

Broadly speaking, given the public statements from the Kremlin on the negotiations process, Putin’s preference for Donald Trump and Narendra Modi as mediators in the Ukraine war is not a coincidence — it is a calculated move to shift the global narrative and secure a settlement that benefits Russia. Trump, who has openly questioned US aid to Ukraine and expressed admiration for Putin, could be inclined to push for a peace deal that freezes Russia’s territorial gains rather than reversing them, effectively legitimising the invasion. Modi, meanwhile, has maintained strategic ties with Moscow while projecting himself as a neutral leader, making him an attractive intermediary for Putin’s efforts to avoid full accountability. However, neither Trump nor Modi should fall into the Kremlin’s trap of treating this as just another geopolitical conflict to be negotiated. This war was and remains an unprovoked act of aggression and a blatant violation of international law. Any mediation effort must begin with the recognition that Russia must be held accountable, must withdraw its forces, and cannot be rewarded for its invasion. Allowing Putin to manipulate diplomacy to his advantage risks normalising the unlawful seizure of territory and setting a dangerous precedent for future conflicts worldwide, and would mark a surrender akin to the Afghanistan “peace/surrender” to the Taliban, and certainly not a peace agreement.

The writer is a poet laureate, diplomat, and global goodwill ambassador for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, with experience working for the UN and allied organisations, and is also an Emergency On-Call Senior Policy Advisor for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery