Once I had lunch with Samuel Huntington at the Harvard Faculty Club. I was eager to talk to him because he had used my 1991 book,La Revanche de Dieu (The Revenge of God),in his famous article and subsequent volume,The Clash of Civilisations.
I had argued that the emergence of religious political movements from the 1970s onward had comparable roots in Islam,Judaism and Christendom: They were all born of a reaction to the passing of the industrial age and had to do with a global rewriting of political identities from social to religious.
Paradoxically,Huntington had focused only on the chapter that dealt with the Islamic world,and made use of it to help develop his idea about the exceptional character of the Muslim civilisation; he had no interest studying its internal,opposing forces. To him,Islam was homogenous and other. We had a good talk,though our views remained quite dissimilar.
A few years later came 9/11. Huntington was elevated to a second media apotheosis: Al-Qaeda terrorism proved him right,many believed,as it demonstrated on the ground that Islam had an absolutist dimension,and that the mass of the faithful could become Osama bin Ladens followers. In the meanwhile,I had written another book,Jihad,whose subtitle in the original French was Expansion and Decline of Islamism. The English-language translation,published in early 2002,skipped that part.
I contended that Islamism,as a cohesive ideology,was doomed to decline,because it bore a fault line between two irreconcilable trends. On the one side were the radicals,who would use more and more demonstrative violence to underline the weakness of the powers-that-be in an attempt to mobilise the masses on their side,and who would finally find themselves isolated and ostracised by those same masses,as the failure of Egyptian and Algerian radicals had proven in the 1990s.
On the other side,a growing amount of Islamists were converting to the creed of pluralism and democracy,as was already then the case in Turkey. That change would not take place without turmoil within their ranks,but at the end of the day their ideological purity based on the absolute sovereignty of Allah concept would be corroded by parliamentary participation. Hence the movement would lose its unity and integrity.
After 9/11 those views were not the most popular. A decade later,and the Arab democratic revolutions,the same people who had extolled Huntington now make an auto-da-fé of his book,saying he misled us in pointing at Arabs and Muslims as radically other; now we know them to be just like us they tweet,theyre on Facebook,and the figurehead of the Egyptian revolution is Googles Middle East manager.
Things may actually be slightly less simple. Jihadi radicalism failed to mobilise the Muslim masses. Conversely,the authoritarian regimes of the Ben Alis and the Mubaraks,whose life expectancy had been extended by their Western allies for a decade because they bragged they were the bulwark against jihadism,became irrelevant.
Today,Arab civil society has dispelled its curse: It has moved on from Either Ben Ali or Bin Laden to Neither Bin Laden nor Ben Ali. The Arab revolutions have reached Phase One in Tunisia and Egypt toppling the dictators but they face the same ordeal: The parlance of democracy and human rights now has to deal with pressing social issues and address huge cohorts of jobless young urban poor.
Lacking it,the secularised middle classes that took the lead in Tunis and Cairo will be at risk. Islamists kept a low profile even in Egypt,where the Muslim Brotherhood has the biggest and best organised network of charities,mosques and local associations. They couldnt beat the democrats,so they joined them.
Listening to their slogans,reading their publications in Arabic,one is struck by the fact that,as opposed to Khomeini in 1979,they were unable to control the revolutions vocabulary. Now,they must either keep on that track and relinquish sovereignty to the people or they must capitalise on the dissatisfaction of the disinherited and push their old Islam is the alternative agenda.
The Islamists,for the time being,are divided along generational and ideological lines,but they have not vanished from the Arab street let alone from Tahrir Square,where Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi,back from Qatar,addressed the crowd for the Friday prayer. They find themselves,along with the whole of society,at a defining moment. It has little to do with the grand schemes of the clash of civilisations,and far more with grass-roots issues. All Arab politics are local and Western academe could pay slightly more attention to that field than to the Web.
The writer is professor of Middle Eastern politics at Sciences Po,Paris The New York Times