Pakistan is getting submarines from China. India must act to maintain its naval superiority

The Hangor Class (for the Pakistan Navy) of submarines, also known as the Type 039A Yuan-class, are arrayed with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology. Unlike nuclear-powered submarines, diesel submarines require surfacing up to recharge their batteries periodically. However, models like Hangor, equipped with AIPs, have a significantly longer time span of remaining submerged, typically lasting 3-4 weeks. This considerably enhances its capacity for stealth, providing a significant edge in underwater combat capabilities.

The inclusion of these submarines in Pakistan’s Navy renders a direct challenge to India’s naval dominance. Along with providing an edge in deterrence, these AIP-equipped Hangor-class submarines can also be integrated with nuclear-capable cruise missiles. Conventionally powered diesel-electric attack submarines are capable of launching cruise missiles either through 533mm torpedo tubes and, in some advanced designs, through added vertical launch cells, alongside torpedoes and anti-ship/land missiles. The Hangor-class submarines meet these parameters and can potentially be endowed with a long-range cruise missile strike capability if a suitable missile is integrated, though this is highly contingent on successful integration.

In 2017, Pakistan developed the Babur-3, a nuclear-capable Submarine Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM). Theoretically and technically, this SLCM can be integrated with Hangor submarines, potentially giving a third leg to Pakistan’s nuclear triad. While this is still speculation, the chances of integrating the missiles are ripe, with the delivery of the Hangor submarines.

This remodel of the Pakistan Navy is bound to tip the power balance in the region. India’s well-established dominance in the Northern Indian Ocean could be tested. Lately, as per the Indian Navy’s modernisation, it has undertaken a variety of ambitious induction plans. India had planned on manufacturing more non-nuclear and diesel-electric submarines domestically under Project 75-I. Under the initiative, it plans to induct six such diesel-powered, non-nuclear submarines and equip them with indigenously developed AIP technology, thereby increasing their underwater longevity.

In 2019, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) greenlit the Project 75 (I), allowing Indian private and public shipbuilders, along with foreign submarine builders (DAC 2020), to build six modern conventional submarines equipped with state-of-the-art technology, including AIP. So far, the progress has been riddled with bureaucratic hurdles, a lack of foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers and issues with technology sharing. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL), a publicly owned defence manufacturer, is now the only standing aspirant in producing submarines in collaboration with Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). Moreover, despite having indigenously developed the AIP technology, the refitting of the technology in INS Khanderi is scheduled for July 2026, with the first sailing to commence only in March or April 2027. With retrofit done and trial services completed, it can go for sea trial not anytime before July 2027. The recurrent delays noted in India’s indigenous AIP Project may ultimately postpone this timeline.

Currently, the Indian Navy has 19 operational submarines, 16 of which are diesel-powered and three are nuclear-powered. Many of these conventional submarines are nearing the end of their life. Since 1999, despite plans to commission 24 submarines by 2030 under Project-75, only six Scorpene-class submarines have been built. The three remaining nuclear submarines are appraised to be inadequate to mitigate the growing competition from China (one of which is leased from Russia). A potent submarine fleet is significant for regional powers like India, as it serves as a cost-effective deterrent against larger navies and controls movement in its strategic waters.

New Delhi today holds an ambitious blueprint of naval modernisation. Currently, it has 54 naval vessels under various stages of construction. It has set a target of expanding its naval fleet to 200 warships and submarines by 2030 and transforming itself into a “builder’s navy”. The slower pace of indigenisation, import dependency, and ageing platforms, however, has recurrently plagued such ambitions. With the Pakistani Navy well on its way to acquiring the new Hangor-class submarines from China, India’s naval superiority in its strategic Northern Indian Ocean will be challenged. Historically, during cases of Indian-Pakistan conflicts, the Indian Navy has provided crucial cover. A growing Pakistani navy would complicate things. Financial constraints and the evolving nature of maritime threats necessitate that New Delhi focus on submarines capable of remaining submerged for extended periods.

Along with submarines, sea drones are another option for New Delhi to consider. Both of these are cheaper alternatives to expensive aircraft carriers and missiles, and are less time-consuming to manufacture. However, to streamline the commission, collaboration with defence partner states is the best approach.

The writer is currently researching an archival project examining India’s Strategic Culture during the Cold War, with the Centre for Applied Social Sciences