As the election campaign in India hits fever pitch despite rising temperatures, most pollsters are predicting a continuation of the incumbent government. Interestingly, the Narendra Modi government has already asked various ministries to prepare plans that they would like to announce in the first 100 days of their third term. The ministries are contacting various experts to help them frame the right policy framework that is in sync with the vision of Viksit Bharat@2047.
Here are some of our suggestions for the agri-food space. They are based on our interactions with experts during the four-day forum organised by the Asian Development Bank on food security in the wake of climate change. Learning from the experiences of other countries is always useful.
First, we need to see this as a food systems transformation. Agriculture has to produce not only more food, fibre and even fuel (biofuels), but it has to do so with fewer resources. India’s population is likely to go to about 1.6 billion by 2047. So, there are more mouths to feed. With gradually rising incomes, people will demand more and better food. Efficiency in the use of land, water, labour, and inputs like fertilisers and farm machinery is going to be critical. In other words, we must aim to raise our total factor productivity. This can be done only by putting in more resources in agri-R&D, innovations and extension.
Second, the production system is being threatened by extreme weather events triggered by global warming. The last April to March temperature has already hit the Laxman Rekha of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Last year’s El Nino effect led to agri-GDP growth dropping from 4.7 per cent in 2022-23 to just 0.7 per cent in 2023-24 (as per the second advance estimate). This poses a high risk, which then triggers knee-jerk reactions to ban exports, putting stock limits on traders, and unloading government stocks below their economic costs with a view to contain food inflation. The real solution lies in investing resources to create climate-resilient (smart) agriculture. This would mean more investments in seeds that are heat and flood-resistant, and more investment in water resources not just in augmenting their supplies but also ensuring water is being used more wisely. “More crop per drop” should not be just a slogan but a reality. Drips, sprinklers, and protected cultivation as part of precision agriculture will have to be adopted at a much larger scale than today.
Given that almost 78 per cent of India’s freshwater is used for agriculture, we must learn to use every drop of water wisely, else cities will starve for water. Bengaluru’s water crisis is just a trailer. More is yet to come.
Third, we must realise that by 2047, more than two-thirds of India will be living in urban areas — up from about 36 per cent today. Migration from rural to urban areas in search of higher productivity jobs is a natural process that cannot, and should not, be wished away. The implication of this is that much of the food will have to be moved from the hinterlands to urban areas. This would require a massive logistics revolution, from transporting to stocking to processing and organised retailing. This would open doors for large-scale investments, primarily by the private sector. The new government will have to facilitate this transformation by changing laws that are suitable for Bharat@2047. Many of our laws are those we inherited from the British in 1947. A fresh set of rules that are more market-aligned would be the need of the hour to build efficient value chains. Else, we are afraid, our post-harvest losses will mount.
Fourth, in this food systems transformation, while all players from the seed industry to farm machinery to processing and retailing are scaling up, farming is still fragmenting into smaller and smaller holdings. The challenge is to ensure that these smallholders are brought together, through Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) or cooperatives (as was done in the milk sector, a la AMUL), to create a scale that is demanded by processors, organised retailers, and exporters. This institutional innovation is the key to inclusive Bharat.
Fifth, on the consumption front, we need to move beyond simple food security to nutritional security. Our malnutrition numbers, especially for children below the age of 5, are horrifying. With stunting today at 35 per cent, how would they make an efficient labour force for Bharat@2047? For this to improve, besides sanitation, women’s education and immunisation, we also need to fortify our staples with micro-nutrients. The government has made a beginning with zinc-rich rice and wheat, but why is it shying away from golden rice with beta carotene (Vitamin A rich), when Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US have declared it safe, and even Bangladesh and Philippines have allowed its trials? Rice is our first crop, and most of those children who are malnourished today consume a lot of rice. This needs to be fortified with high nutrition.
Sixth, all this cannot be done by the government. Public-private partnerships are the way to go. The private sector can build efficient value chains and also produce seeds that are climate-resilient and more nutritious. The government has to provide a conducive policy framework. When the government can devise PLI-type schemes for industry, why not for food systems transformation for tomorrow?
Lastly, nothing much will move unless farmers’ incomes improve. For that, we need to “re-purpose” our subsidy regimes, be it fertilisers or food. A minimum of 25 to 30 per cent of the Rs 4 trillion subsidy on food and fertilisers can be saved if we move from the price-subsidy approach to direct income transfers for beneficiaries. These savings can be ploughed back into food systems for higher resilience and better nutrition.
Can the next government do it? Only time will tell.
The writers are distinguished professor, fellow and research associate at ICRIER respectively. Views are personal
Nothing much will move unless farmers’ incomes improve. For that, we need to “re-purpose” our subsidy regimes, be it fertilisers or food. (File Photo) 
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