Fifth Column: A year of bad choices
Had Modi remained true to his promise of taking India in an economic direction that veered towards free markets and reduced regulations, we would have seen that kind of dramatic change by now.
This column lent its support to Narendra Modi in 2014 in the hope that he would hold true to his promise to bring the ‘parivartan’ India so badly needs.
In this season of good cheer I am finding it hard to get in the mood. From a political perspective, 2019 looks like it will be a year of bad options. The general election looms closer and the choices are depressing. This column lent its support to Narendra Modi in 2014 in the hope that he would hold true to his promise to bring the ‘parivartan’ India so badly needs. Not just in economic policies and political culture but in improving our colonial, byzantine systems of administration that cannot ever deliver good governance.
It was the magic of that word ‘parivartan (change)’ that in my view won Modi a full majority. Modi did not have the constraint Congress leaders have of paying lip service to Nehruvian socialism. So his economic reforms could have surpassed those that P V Narasimha Rao made by ending the licence raj. India’s private sector boomed as a result and we saw the creation of a middle class bigger than the population of most big countries. Had Modi remained true to his promise of taking India in an economic direction that veered towards free markets and reduced regulations, we would have seen that kind of dramatic change by now.
Had he at the same time changed a political culture that treats elected representatives as rulers, and not servants of the people who elect them, we would have seen political ‘parivartan’. He chose instead to veer right only in a cultural sense, so the lives of cows have become more important than the life of a police officer. And, the lynching of Muslim cattle traders has come to be the leitmotif of Hindutva, debasing the immense idea of the Sanatan Dharma to a dismal creed. There has been digital ‘parivartan’. Most Indians now have bank accounts, but there is little money in them. And, because the private sector has not seen the boom it expected, there is still no sign of the 12 million new jobs India needs to create every year.
If Modi has disappointed, pay attention to his possible replacement. The scion of our imperial Dynasty now struts about as Modi’s main challenger because winning Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh was no small victory. But, it is no indication that the Congress has recovered enough to form a government on its own, so he will rely on alliances with some very dodgy ‘secular’ political parties whose economic ideas are stupidly socialist. Free markets, liberalisation and economic reforms are dirty words in their lexicon.
It does not help that they think dynastic democracy is good. Many of our opposition parties are private limited companies led by the heirs of political leaders. Most of these heirs have entered ‘public service’ with the idea of private gain. Politics in India, as we all know, is the easiest way to make a lot of money very quickly. This is why rare are those political leaders who do not treat their constituency as a private estate to be handed down to an heir.
These political leaders hide their real motives under the cloak of ‘secularism’. And sadly, Modi has played right into their hands by remaining silent while his ministers and chief ministers encouraged lynchings. Silent when vigilante thugs with direct links to the Sangh Parivar roamed highways making the transport of cattle virtually impossible.
If he had instead sold off unprofitable public sector companies, privatised corrupt, unprofitable public sector banks and encouraged India’s private sector to grow and prosper, he would be facing next year’s general elections as a winner. His team may tell him that he is a winner anyway because he has done so much to improve rural welfare schemes that give our poorest citizens gas cylinders and money to build homes and toilets. They may tell him that his digital dreams are now a reality and that benefits are transferred directly to the bank accounts of beneficiaries. What they do not tell him is that most rural households are too poor to buy the second gas cylinder. What they do not tell him is that there are so few rural banks that farmers sometimes spend days queueing to cash a meagre cheque.
If this sounds bad, please remember that if the ‘secular’ side wins, it will bring back an era of farm loan waivers and socialist policies that seek to redistribute wealth before it is created. See what I mean when I say that 2019 is going to be a year of bad political choices? Since I may have cast a pall of gloom over your season of good cheer, I shall end on a happy note. Do not be too gloomy about India’s future. There have been many worse times that we have lived through. This too will pass. The good news is that our political leaders now have to watch their step. Happy New Year.
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