Opinion Muhammad Yunus’s pitch to China on Northeast is provocative, could undermine Dhaka’s own interests
These remarks have much strategic significance and have alerted the leaders of states in the northeastern region as well as geopolitical observers. It could upset the delicate balance Bangladesh has maintained between India and China
Bangladesh Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, China’s President Xi Jinping. (Photo: X/ @ChiefAdviserGoB) 
Bangladesh’s chief adviser of the interim government Muhammad Yunus during his recent tour of China made some unexpected remarks about northeastern India’s landlocked situation. He invited China to expand its influence in the region by factoring Bangladesh’s role as the only gateway to the Indian Ocean. These remarks have much strategic significance and have alerted the leaders of states in the northeastern region as well as geopolitical observers. Since Sheikh Hasina’s overthrow in August last year, elements close to Bangladesh’s interim government have made provocative statements which, while lacking immediate impact, significantly strain bilateral relations with India.
India’s northeastern region—the “Seven Sisters” states — represents a strategically vital yet vulnerable frontier. Its complex geography, ethnic diversity, and international borders with China, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Bhutan create unique security challenges with deep historical roots. Following the 1947 partition, this region became largely isolated from rest of India and is connected only by the narrow “Chicken’s Neck” (Siliguri Corridor) — a geographical constraint with profound security implications.
The 1962 Sino-Indian War exposed the region’s vulnerability when Chinese forces advanced through Arunachal Pradesh before withdrawing, establishing a pattern of tension that persists today. Bangladesh’s creation in 1971 further altered the regional dynamics, creating both opportunities and challenges.
China remains India’s most significant strategic competitor in the region. Beijing’s approach combines traditional border disputes with economic and diplomatic pressures. China continues to claim Arunachal Pradesh as “South Tibet” while developing formidable military infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control. Its road networks, air bases, and missile installations meant to enable rapid force deployment, alongwith provocative misadventures, generate a persistent geopolitical concern in the south Asian region.
China’s dam construction on the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) presents another security threat. As an upstream riparian state, China’s control over water resources could affect agriculture, power generation, and ecological stability throughout India’s northeast and more so in Bangladesh. Historically, Chinese intelligence agencies have provided covert support to various insurgent groups in the region, though this support has diminished in recent years.
Bangladesh’s role in northeastern security is multifaceted. Irregular migration has altered demographics in several northeastern states, particularly Assam, fuelling social tensions and political movements. Historically, northeastern insurgent groups found safe haven in Bangladesh, though Sheikh Hasina’s government had significantly cooperated in dismantling these sanctuaries and extraditing insurgent leaders.
The combined influence of China and Bangladesh creates a strategic encirclement, as the northeast is surrounded by foreign territories. This geography creates vulnerability to coordinated pressure. The Siliguri Corridor’s narrow width (less than 22 kilometers at points) makes it susceptible to disruption, with China’s proximity and influence in Nepal creating scenarios where northeastern states could be physically isolated from mainland India.
Both nations compete with India for the region’s natural resources, particularly water and hydropower potential. Additionally, irregular migration, cross-border terrorism, drug trafficking, and arms smuggling create a complex security environment that traditional military approaches cannot fully address.
Yunus’s provocative pitch to China raises questions about motive. Bangladesh has historically balanced relations with both India and China for economic benefit while avoiding provocations. The current approach by a caretaker administration — already facing numerous domestic challenges — seems counterproductive to the friendly bilateral relationship developed over 50 years with India.
Recent connectivity initiatives like water and rail transit agreements had begun addressing northeastern India’s landlocked situation while providing economic benefits to Bangladesh, though progress remains slow. By inviting Chinese influence, Bangladesh risks harming its own interests more than impacting India.
India has implemented a multi-layered strategy to address these challenges. The government has accelerated infrastructure development, including border roads, railway extensions, and airfield upgrades to improve military mobility and economic integration. Through the Act East Policy, India aims to transform the northeast from a peripheral region to a gateway for trade and diplomacy with ASEAN nations. Improved relations with Bangladesh under Hasina had reduced tensions and increased counter-terrorism cooperation, while dialogue with China has continued despite border disagreements. Peace agreements with various insurgent groups and development initiatives have significantly addressed grievances underlying security challenges.
The security of India’s northeastern states remains complex, requiring vigilance and adaptability. The region’s position at the intersection of South and Southeast Asia, combined with its ethnic diversity and challenging geography, makes it both strategically vital and inherently vulnerable. As China’s ambitions grow and regional dynamics evolve, India must balance military preparedness with diplomatic engagement and economic development.
Should Bangladesh persist with its provocative stance, it will further complicate regional stability while undermining its own interests—essentially scoring a self-goal in the complex geopolitical game unfolding across South Asia.
The writer, a defence and cyber security analyst, is former country head of General Dynamics
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