From the Opinions Editor: From Kerala’s landslides to Assam’s floods, learning to live with nature

The country’s Northeast illustrates this challenge. The Brahmaputra and its tributaries have always been dynamic rivers, reshaping channels, depositing sediment and inundating floodplains during the monsoon. Flooding is part of the region’s natural ecology. But today, the context has changed. A warmer atmosphere can fuel more intense bursts of rainfall, while expanding settlements, embankments, floodplain encroachment and the loss of wetlands have left more people and assets exposed. Embankments have protected communities and farmland, but they have also restricted natural river movement and, in some places, increased the consequences when floods exceed their limits. Forest degradation in catchments has further weakened the landscape’s ability to regulate water flows and retain soil. The result is not simply more water, but greater vulnerability.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s expression of helplessness over recurring floods was telling. It reflected the limits of an approach centred largely on relief and rehabilitation after each inundation. Living with a dynamic river system requires a different philosophy of governance: Reducing vulnerability before disaster strikes, not responding afterwards.

Kerala’s slopes are known to be susceptible to landslides during intense rainfall. But quarrying, deforestation, road construction and expanding habitation on fragile hillsides have increased the damage when extreme rainfall occurs. The state’s long-standing resistance to recommendations of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel, which called for greater caution in ecologically sensitive areas, speaks of a wider difficulty in reconciling development ambitions with ecological limits.

It may be tempting to see the crisis unfolding in Europe as part of the same climate story. A warming atmosphere does intensify the hydrological cycle, producing heavier rainfall in some regions and more intense heat in others. But stopping the analysis there risks overlooking important nuances. Mediterranean ecosystems have evolved with fire for millennia; fire is intrinsic to their ecology. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts and more frequent heatwaves have undoubtedly intensified fire risk. A response that goes beyond expression of helplessness or alarmism requires understanding the ecological and social changes that have unfolded over the past half-century. Rural populations have declined, traditional grazing has diminished, woodlands have expanded without active management and decades of suppressing smaller fires have allowed combustible vegetation to accumulate. Housing and tourism have spread into fire-prone landscapes. Here too, climate change is interacting with decades of land-use change and shifting ecological conditions, exposing the limitations of approaches from an earlier era in managing fire-prone landscapes.

Heavy rainfall, heat and drought become disasters when they intersect with vulnerable populations, degraded ecosystems and inadequate preparedness. Similar hazards can produce vastly different outcomes depending on where people live, how landscapes are managed and whether governments invest in early warning systems, resilient infrastructure and risk-informed planning. Scientific advances — from improved climate attribution studies to satellite-based monitoring of rainfall, land-use change and ecological change — are making it increasingly possible to understand how global warming influences particular events. But explaining the climatic drivers of an event does not, by itself, explain why it becomes a disaster. Equally important is understanding why similar hazards produce different consequences. Disaster risk is shaped as much by governance, ecological stewardship and an understanding of social vulnerabilities as by meteorology.

For India, the challenge is twofold: To build far stronger systems for anticipating and responding to future disasters, while also rethinking how rivers, forests, mountains and cities are planned and governed in a changing climate. Rivers need space to flood where they naturally should. Wetlands, forests and mangroves must be recognised as protective infrastructure rather than expendable land. Urban planning, transport networks and public infrastructure must be shaped by an understanding of the landscapes and climates they now inhabit, rather than the certainties of an earlier era.

Events of the past week are the umpteenth examples of a reality: Besides altering weather, climate change is testing the ways societies inhabit, adapt and govern their landscapes. A warmer world will not produce identical disasters. The consequences will depend on the choices governments make, the ecosystems they protect and the institutions they strengthen. Adaptation should not be a single blueprint but a set of locally grounded responses to locally specific risks.

Till next time

Stay well

Kaushik Das Gupta

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