Opinion Death of President Ebrahim Raisi: In Iran and beyond, what will change and what won’t

Khamenei’s move will, however, not stall the questions that will inevitably arise about the reasons for the crash. The appointment of an enquiry commission can be expected. However, there will be popular speculation about whether Iran’s enemies were connected to the incident. Israeli media has reported the country’s government sources as denying any involvement. As of now, the Iranian authorities have also not pointed fingers at any foreign power. That does not mean that they may not do so if emerging domestic compulsions following Raisi’s death require them to. That will substantially complicate the next few months for the region and beyond at a time when the situation is complex enough because of Israel’s continuing operations in Gaza.

It will be useful to place the position of president within the Iranian system in perspective. There is no doubt that the final authority on all matters in Iran is the Supreme Leader. The president is elected by the people from among candidates who are allowed to contest the election by the Guardian Council. However, his powers are circumscribed — the Supreme Leader has a decisive veto. Since Iran’s Islamic Revolution, there have been only two clerics to hold that position. The first was Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who established the doctrine of the Vilayat-e-Faqih (Rule of the Jurisprudent) and led the Islamic Revolution that overthrew the Shah in 1979. He was the undisputed master of Iran till his death in June 1989.

He was succeeded by Ali Khamenei who has controlled Iran’s destiny since then. Khamenei has had big shoes to fill and it has taken him time to do so. Even then, he has never had Khomeini’s heft and hence, has had to sense the popular mood even while trying to mould it. This exercise has resulted in his bending with the wind when required to allow pragmatist clerics — as distinct from hardliners — to contest and “win” elections. Presidents Khatami (1997-2005) and Rouhani (2013-2021) would come in this category.

Former US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal dealt a severe blow to the pragmatists. Consequently, the hardliners gradually overshadowed the pragmatists. The former were opposed to not only the deal but were also in favour of maintaining the purity of the Revolution, including on gender issues. They also favoured the pursuit of an assertive policy in the region. They began, with the tacit blessing of the Supreme Leader, to fill positions in the councils which vetted those who wished to contest elections to legislative bodies and executive offices.

Raisi who had occupied judicial offices and was known to freely hand down harsh sentences, including capital punishment, became the hardliners’ choice to be the President in 2021. He easily won the election and has pursued the hardliners’ agenda since assuming office. Prior to his election and to an extent after that too, some thought that when the time came, he may succeed Khamenei who is now 85 years old. However, some perceptive observers of the Iranian scene believe that this may not have been so. Indeed, Khamenei’s son Mujtaba may become a formidable candidate for the Supreme Leader’s position, despite the charge of “parivarvaad” that his parentage may attract.

Under the Iranian constitution, a new President will have to be elected within 50 days of Raisi’s death. It is doubtful if Khamenei and the Guardian Council will allow a pragmatist to contest, let alone win, the presidential election. The Revolutionary Guard is the Supreme Leader’s praetorian force and is committed to safeguarding the ideals of the Revolution. It will also favour continuity through the election of a hardliner. It is difficult to discern at this time who will be chosen by the hardline forces, with Khamenei’s blessing, as the next President. On most occasions in the past, an unexpected figure emerged who took office after being cleared to contest the election. This time may not be different.

Iran continues to struggle under Western sanctions. It has gradually, but strongly, moved into the Russo-Sino orbit especially since Trump ended the nuclear deal. That process will not be impeded by Raisi’s death. Iran had also launched a missile attack against Israel in response to the latter’s attack on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, which resulted in the death of Reza Zahedi, a senior Revolutionary Guard officer. However, both countries took care that the situation did not escalate to a point of no return. For the foreseeable future, despite their intense enmity and Iran’s full support to Hamas and other anti-Israeli groups, both will take care that their actions do not spill over into all-out war. The Biden administration and the Chinese too will restrain both sides.

While Raisi is gone and a new President will take over within the next couple of months, Iran’s domestic and foreign orientations, including towards South Asia, are unlikely to change. Thus, Iranian support to India on the Chabahar port is not going to be endangered. However, Raisi recently visited Pakistan to balance its South Asian policy and a new President will follow that course too. The traditional unease between Iran and the Arab states will continue despite the seeming rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The real crunch in Iran will come when a vacancy arises in the Supreme Leader’s office.

The writer is a former diplomat