India’s challenges as it takes over the G20 presidency at a time of geopolitical instability

The Leaders’ Declaration, based on consensus, was an achievement in itself, as many feared that the grouping may fail to produce it. Several features are of particular note, especially those on current political tensions, economic crises and climate change, among others. Significantly, the backdrop of “unparalleled multidimensional crises” against which the summit took place was recognised upfront. It is necessary to acknowledge the impact evident in the economic downturn, increasing global poverty and the delay in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

The G20’s instinct, therefore, was right to stay focused on securing long-term economic growth. The effort will continue to ensure food, fertiliser and energy security for all, especially the more vulnerable economies. In particular, there was support for full implementation and continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for good exports from Ukraine.

On climate change, the G20 reiterated its commitment to achieving global net zero greenhouse gas emissions/carbon neutrality “by or around mid-century” and keeping to the 1.5°C temperature limit. Developed countries were reminded to fulfil their previous commitment to mobilise $100 billion per year “by 2020 and through to 2025”. Similar gaps are evident in health security collaboration between the finance and health ministries of the nations for the pandemic fund to prevent, prepare and respond to future pandemics. The financing gap of $10 billion must be bridged through energetic collective endeavours.

Lastly, the value of digital technology for multiple sectors — sustainable agriculture, trade, job creation, human capacity development, and inclusive industrialisation — was reiterated, especially for developing countries.

Achieving a final formulation on the key political-cum-security issue of Ukraine was a task. But it emerged. The sherpas burnt the midnight oil to find formulations that could satisfy the two contending camps. A finely-balanced outcome saved the Bali summit. The stamp of Indian diplomacy is visible in the last line: “Today’s era must not be of war.”But, while the officials delivered, the G20 was a divided house with several leaders shedding their responsibility of charting the path to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. Political leaders must recognise the root cause of the food, fuel, and fertiliser crisis: The conflict in Ukraine and its related sanctions. The false missile crisis on the summit’s last day underlined the perils of delaying a serious bid for peace.

India has made a correct assessment. “Without peace and security, our future generations will not be able to take advantage of economic growth and technological innovation”, said Modi. His promise for an action-oriented and ambitious presidency will be closely watched, especially by his domestic constituency, which will expect his foreign policy abroad to be equally convincing when conducted from the home ground.

Is India prepared? The country has not invested much in multilateral rule-making institutions like the G20, but it is never too late to start. India is ahead in some aspects, particularly technology with digital public goods and its governance. But it will certainly need help and expertise, which can come from the other two members of the next troika, Indonesia and Brazil, as well as from France and Turkey gave their deep knowledge of the region around Ukraine. The Modi-Macron lunch on November 16 may have sown the seeds of a future peace initiative. Perhaps Modi, after visiting Moscow in December, will travel to Kyiv.

Bhatia is Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House and Kripalani is the Co-Founder and Executive Director of Gateway House