In Nepal, the K P Oli’s biggest challenge isn’t the opposition — it’s from within

Bhandari’s entering the political fray has triggered a debate in the country. Those seeking a return to monarchy feel vindicated and claim the head of state has to be above partisan politics. The UML, reeling under the seemingly authoritarian control of Prime Minister K P Oli (he has also been heading the party for the last decade) largely appeared to welcome Bhandari’s return. The person visibly upset was Oli.

This is not the first time that Nepal’s radically ‘progressive’ politics since 2006 has led to more complications than stability. In 2011, Nepal’s sitting chief justice headed a coalition government joined by four major political parties. The move — endorsed by international stakeholders that have been part of the radical political changes and peace process — left the judiciary discredited more as a political player than an independent branch of the state that acts as a check and balance. External actors are not visible this time around, perhaps because they do not want to be seen as associated with an incomplete peace process, poor governance and corruption.

Bhandari’s return may have larger implications. For Oli, she could well be a threat to his leadership in the party. Oli is not known for respecting political dissent or opposition. On June 28, he abruptly rose from the dais that he was sharing with Bhandari before she could announce her re-entry and curtly responded to the anticipated move. “I know you speak well and know what you are going to say.” In the next breath, he said, “People say Madan Bhandari had four wives, and that he had run away after swindling money from the cooperative sector. How does one substantiate it?” Oli — the self-proclaimed legatee of Madan Bhandari’s vision and leadership — concocted and exaggerated charges.

Oli is known to pursue a politics of vendetta and revenge. But by humiliating arguably the most popular leader of the party, his legacy and his family, Oli seems to be heading downhill. After his return from Seville in Spain and participation in the Global Development Summit next week, many in the UML say he will see a determined campaign against him that may directly impact Oli’s tenure as the Prime Minister. He is also likely to visit Delhi towards the end of July but much will depend on how he copes with the likely political turmoil at home.

Oli, as per his arrangement with the Nepali Congress, the largest party in parliament, has over ten months to go before he hands over the prime minister’s chair to Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba, until the next general elections, due in January 2027. However, in a country rife with political instability and unprincipled political alliances, such agreements have not come to fruition in the past.

There are also fears that Oli may use investigative and state agencies to quell the hostility against him. Almost every top leader including Deuba, opposition leader and former PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ faces allegations of corruption. Former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and former Deputy PM Rabi Lamichhane are already facing corruption charges and their membership in the House is suspended.

However, it is the Bhandari-Oli tussle that will shape politics in Nepal to a large degree. Already senior leaders of the UML have come out in support of Bhandari, who wants Oli to retire due to the party’s 70-year age cap. He had told Bhandari last week that he would continue in the post for one more term as he has to “fight and defeat internal and external forces working against him”.
Oli’s defeat will also mean the defeat of a “method” by which leaders have been exercising power — without accountability and with immunity from all crimes, including corruption. However, Oli’s downfall will not automatically lead to Bhandari’s crowning as a leader. It will deepen instability in the current system without an alternative in place.

The writer is the Kathmandu-based contributing editor for The Indian Express