6 min readDec 23, 2025 07:55 AM IST
First published on: Dec 23, 2025 at 07:34 AM IST
Sometimes it is better to take a long-term view of crises, especially when it comes to the life of nations. This seems to be the best way to make sense of what is happening in Bangladesh. Power transfers have never been smooth there. When, on rare occasions, the transfer has taken place through the ballot, the pattern has been that the winner takes all, assumes absolute control, and drives the opposition into the dust.
Since the brutal assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, the people of Bangladesh have been hostage to a fight to the finish between the widow of a military dictator, Khaleda Zia, and the daughter of a freedom fighter, Sheikh Hasina. A rare exception was when they joined hands to bring down another military dictator, Hussain Muhammad Ershad, in 1991. They, however, did not bay for his blood. He was allowed to live and participate in the country’s political life for 28 years till his death in 2019. This looks like a far cry from the retribution in the air today.
Hasina is not the only leader to deprive the Bangladeshi people of their democratic rights. She followed a line of military dictators. Khaleda Zia could not stay in power beyond her term, not because of lack of effort, but because of abuse of power and corruption, the price for which had to be paid by her son, who was forced by the army to leave the country. Indignation over Hasina’s abuse of power, notably in certain Western capitals, does not square with the well-known record of governance in Bangladesh over the past 50 years. The country has hardly been a paragon of democracy. The exaggerated vilification of Hasina and the glorification of Muhammad Yunus as the messiah of democratic values, tolerance, and inclusion has few takers in India.
Amid a clash of personalities and the resultant preoccupation with settling scores, there are two gainers: Right-wing forces led by the Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan. Both are taking full advantage of the post-August 2024 political vacuum and the worsening chaos. The losers are the people, or more importantly, the youth of Bangladesh, who are being fed a mix of fake promises and a false enemy. One can debate whether an Islamic society is the solution to Bangladesh’s challenges surrounding development and identity, but blaming India is certainly not. It is an attempt to mislead the people. Luckily, regardless of the images on social media, the majority of the people in Bangladesh do not buy this proposition, and are desperate to move on with the real issues in their lives. This will be possible only if Pakistani mischief allows them to do so.
Yunus and his set of advisers have proved to be part of the problem, not the solution. The past 16 months have seen the capture of all institutions by right-wing Islamists, who are embedded in the ruling coterie and enjoy immunity. Much of this is under the surface, but not all — for example, the media, which is frightened to report any contrarian view. Mob rule and instant justice have returned to the streets.
One way out of this morass is to hold elections. India is watching the various reform measures underway in Bangladesh to strengthen democratic institutions. This is a positive fallout of the previous experience but the spirit of those reforms has to be translated into practice.
The weeks ahead are going to be crucial. For one, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rahman is set to return after 17 years in exile. We may expect to see another massive show of force on the streets of Dhaka to welcome him. Add to this the likely reaction in case of a precipitate development relating to his mother’s health. From being allies battling a common enemy (the Awami League), the BNP and the Jamaat will compete for power, both believing that this is their moment. The Jamaat has an early-mover advantage and would like to seize power without an election. Given the fragility of state capacity and multiple other faultlines, further extreme events cannot be ruled out.
Any credible election requires a strong and impartial government machinery. This looks like a tall order today. Further, an election without the participation of the Awami League can never be regarded as fair and inclusive. Yet, Delhi has signalled that it is ready to deal with any new political formation. It is sophisticated enough to see through Pakistan’s game, sensitive enough to respect the genuine sentiments of the Bangladeshi people, and seasoned enough to realise the stakes involved.
One last thought. India is not to blame for the political processes in Bangladesh. If the country throws up a political dispensation that desires good relations with it, as it did in the recent past, India is not going to rebuff it.
There is a lot of sensitivity in Bangladesh about India’s comments on its relations with Pakistan. If Bangladesh has the agency it claims it has, certainly more than it did 50 years ago, it should stay away from the India-Pakistan rivalry. Spiting India, for example, by turning a blind eye to, if not enabling, brutal attacks on minorities is, first and foremost, a threat to the stability of Bangladesh. And in the midst of this jockeying for power, we should not forget the silent majority. They are waiting for their turn.
The writer is former deputy national security adviser and high commissioner to Bangladesh, and convenor, NatStrat
Flames engulf the office of the Prothom Alo newspaper after it was torched by protesters in Dhaka. (AP) 
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