6 min readMay 13, 2023 09:12 AM IST
First published on: May 11, 2023 at 01:04 PM IST
On Tuesday, the Pakistani establishment compounded the hydra-headed crisis confronting it by arresting Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan. In a heavy-handed operation, he was picked up from the Islamabad High Court, where he had gone to get bail in some cases. This has come at a time when the mood on the street has turned ugly owing to the lack of employment and economic opportunities and hardship.
Imran Khan was arrested by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in the Al Qadir Trust case, for his and his wife’s alleged role in causing a loss of 190 million pounds to the exchequer in the course of his government’s dealings with a property tycoon. He has been hoisted by his own petard. After all, he had come to power in 2018 with more than a helping hand from the army. His ascent to office followed Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification from holding public office and subsequent conviction in a corruption case through a dubious judicial process. As PM, he hounded his political opponents with accountability cases.
Having gained popularity on an anti-army nationalist plank since his ouster from power, his quest for an early election has pitted him against the Shehbaz Sharif government, which has brazenly delayed the election to the dissolved assembly of the all-important Punjab province against constitutional norms. The bitter fight has seen all key institutions of the state — the president, the government, backed by its parliamentary majority, the chief justice of the bitterly divided supreme court, the chief election commissioner and the army — play a partisan role.
Bereft of an effective political counter to Khan’s popularity and weighed down by the people’s anger against its harsh economic measures to stabilise the economy, the government has been trying to corner him with multiple court cases, mostly alleging corruption and arrest him, paving the way for his disqualification. This strategy had not been successful owing to the government’s inability to pin him down in a serious matter, but reportedly also because of a lack of backing of Army Chief Asim Munir, despite his known aversion to Khan, who as PM had shunted him out of the post of DG (ISI).
This changed with Khan recently voicing his old allegation that Major General Faisal Naseer, the head of counter-intelligence at ISI, engineered attempts on his life, including as recently as March 18. The army reacted sharply with the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) describing Imran’s allegation as “fabricated and malicious”. Referring to a consistent pattern of targeting military and intelligence officials with insinuations and sensational propaganda, the ISPR statement called upon the political leaders concerned to stop making false allegations, failing which the army would take recourse to legal action. Khan’s arrest came within two days of this statement. Significantly, he was picked up by Punjab Rangers who, though nominally under civilian control, are commanded by army officers. The NAB is headed by a retired Lieutenant General.
The arrest provoked violent agitation by PTI supporters across Pakistan with reports of ransacking and burning down of public and army properties. The state authority seems to have virtually collapsed. The deployment of the army in Islamabad, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is an indicator of the serious situation.
In an uncharacteristically quick dispensation of justice, a three-member bench of the Supreme Court headed by the Chief Justice, who has been in open confrontation with the government, ordered his release, declaring his arrest from judicial premises as illegal. While the violent protests have abated, the political tussle is far from over.
The army will use all means, including an attempt to tame the Chief Justice, to take Khan out of the political equation by disqualifying him. It may be counting on the second-rung leadership of the PTI — many of whom have been close to it and gravitated towards Imran Khan at its behest — not being able to sustain the momentum in the absence of the charismatic Khan. Some other senior leaders of the party have also been arrested. The result will be heightened turmoil in Pakistan and a further sapping of the government’s energy to address more pressing problems.
As things stand, the PTI will most likely emerge victorious in a free and fair election later this year. If the army-ruling coalition combine prevents that outcome through unconstitutional means, it will pave the way for a bigger crisis. After all, the current political crisis is the result of former chief Qamar Javed Bajwa’s political engineering.
The international community looks on with anxiety as the troubled and troublesome Pakistan inches closer to the brink. Deeply invested in Pakistan, the Chinese must be a worried lot. During Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s recent visit to Islamabad, China expressed the hope that political forces in Pakistan would build consensus, uphold stability and address the domestic and external challenges more effectively. The advice seems to have fallen on deaf ears. The US reaction has been low-key, calling for the respect of democratic principles and the rule of law. But they would be concerned at the prospect of a meltdown in a nuclear-armed country.
That should be a matter of concern to India. We have little leverage over Pakistan’s internal developments. But we have been an exemplar to all constructive forces in the region as a stable and inclusive democracy, making economic strides and willing to share success with regional partners. We need to preserve this strength and keep the above vision of India open to the sizeable constructive thinking population in Pakistan that does not see eye to eye with its establishment, rather than lumping it with the actions of the establishment and our responses to them.
The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan
Ex-Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan seen before and after his arrest at Islamabad court premises on May 9, 2023. (Screengrab from Reuters video)
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