H-1B policy changes 2025: With no insurrectionists invading the US Capitol in Washington, DC, this January 6, America has been robbed of a juicy fight, something we have come to expect after a US presidential election. But all is not lost. Mercifully, there are enough reckless individuals within the extreme MAGA wing of the Donald J Trump coalition who are unreasonable in a different enough way from the reckless individuals in the coalition’s tech wing. So, we have a fight.
Laura Loomer, self-anointed MAGA high-priestess, took issue with the nomination of a harmless enough chap called Sriram Krishnan to the harmless enough position of “senior AI advisor” to Trump. Neither Loomer nor Krishnan is particularly consequential, but her warning that Krishnan’s nomination signalled a threat to America from “third-world invaders from India” became a call to arms for the extreme MAGA — exactly the outcome a professional conspiracist hopes for. Krishnan, an otherwise chatty tech podcast host, has remained mum and it was left to invaders from a different third-world country (South Africa), techies Elon Musk and David Sacks, to speak up in support of invaders from everywhere. It is also sweet that both Musk and Sacks are White — and have roles in the upcoming administration. Now, techies are up in arms as well. US-born Vivek Ramaswamy bashed his home country for venerating mediocrity.
In the meantime, a demoralised Trump opposition finally has something to cling to: A crack in the MAGA edifice. Finally, a civil war to celebrate. The commander-in-chief in-waiting came out in favour of H-1B invaders, giving the techies an early win. Trump may have been a bit confused about the distinction between an H-1B visa holder and an immigrant he hires to mow the grass on one of his golf courses, but for now, the visa programme is safe. But you can never be too sure with Trump. In his first term, he had issued an executive order temporarily banning H-1B visas, which a federal court had struck down. This time, Trump’s bromance with the techies may have caused a change of heart, but all things to do with the heart are ephemeral for the president-elect.
Indians are in the eye of the storm. It was an Indian-born, Krishnan, whose nomination set off the row; Indians are the majority of H-1B visa holders; Indians clearly aren’t White Europeans, who according to Loomer “built” America. But let’s put this incident in perspective with three wider contextual issues.
Issue one: The H-1B visa programme — the largest temporary work visa for foreigners in the US — is beset with problems. Complaints come from those who want it banned as well as those who want it expanded. The H-1B programme allows employers to hire foreign workers “in speciality occupations or as fashion models of distinguished merit and ability,” when US workers of equivalent skills cannot be found. (Who am I to question why “fashion models” deserve the special call-out?). Populist politics is in vogue in the US, so politicians are complaining about the programme being misused to hire cheap — as opposed to American — labour. Since the visa is tied to the sponsoring organisation, it could bond the worker leading to further exploitation. Others worry that US workers are overlooked and as a result, fewer Americans study STEM subjects and the US education system is failing them, creating a vicious cycle.
Champions of the programme argue that the demand for such visas vastly exceeds the annual cap and argue against the caps for each country. Moreover, the electronic registration is abused by companies gaming the system through multiple filings, which leads to delays and a lottery creating uncertainty for everyone. Musk claims the programme is essential to retain the top 0.1 per cent of engineering talent, but not everyone in the programme is highly skilled and many outstanding applicants are denied.
The flawed H-1B is part of an overall flawed immigration policy system in the US. Recent administrations have all promised to fix it and have failed. Don’t expect Trump’s second coming to find a fair solution.
Issue two: Trump wants to out-compete China and America badly needs that foreign-born talent. A recent US Department of Energy commissioned report found that the US is losing its competitive advantage in STEM to China. Immigrants have been critical to building artificial intelligence models as well as to installing artificial turf on a Trump property. It has kept the country younger than its European counterparts with a vibrant workforce. Firms with H-1B visa holders have a higher rate of patents and patent citations. Immigrants are twice as likely to start a business as native-born Americans. The US system of higher education would come apart without foreign-born students, researchers and faculty. The Darwinian process of immigrating (beginning with the visa hurdles at US embassies or slipping through the border with Mexico) brings a certain degree of can-do-it-ness, which accounts for the accomplishments of the displaced. Contrary to the misinformation spread by Trump himself, immigrants, both legal and illegal, commit far fewer crimes than US citizens.
Issue three: The H-1B storm is larger than the teacup in which it is brewing. It is part of a larger war over who can cosy up to the Big Boss. The techies see opportunities for money-making in business-building without pesky regulatory guardrails and installing technocratic “efficiency” solutions and the conspiracists see opportunities for money-making from large digital followerships and selling conspiracies. The Boss, in the meantime, thrives on the attention.
While our focus is on immigration, the real issue is a much wider scuffle inside the Trump circus tent, which at some point will explode beyond it. As opposed to the false fears of invasion of America, the ill effects of that explosion will invade every other part of the world. Worsening the broken immigration policy or failures on other pressing matters: Reversing action on climate change, uncontrolled rush into crypto or to Mars, worsening the misery in conflict zones in the Middle East, Africa or Ukraine, unpreparedness for the next pandemic. Who needs invaders from the third world? America has invaded itself.
The writer is dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and senior (non-resident) fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress
H-1B visa debate: While our focus is on immigration, the real issue is a much wider scuffle inside the Trump circus tent, which at some point will explode beyond it. 
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