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For Germany, China came before India. Friedrich Merz just flipped the script

It has long been a paradox that the relationship between the world’s largest democracy and Europe’s largest economy has underperformed, a story of ‘all talk and no play’

The wind is finally in the sails for the India-Germany kite to soar. Now, both leaders must ensure they don't let the string snap

Written by: Ashutosh Nagda

5 min readJan 16, 2026 02:46 PM IST First published on: Jan 15, 2026 at 12:01 PM IST

In diplomacy, as in life, where you choose to show up first tells the world exactly where your heart, and perhaps your interests, lies.

On January 12, when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stepped onto the Sabarmati Riverfront, it wasn’t just for a photo-op. As he stood alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi, tugging at the string of a vibrant kite featuring Lord Hanuman, Merz sent a signal that resonated far beyond the banks of the Sabarmati and the Ahmedabad skyline. By visiting India on his first trip to Asia since his inauguration as Chancellor in May 2025, he signalled a departure from Berlin’s traditional Asian hierarchy established by Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel, in which Beijing was at the top. Scholz struck a balance by visiting Tokyo first, and now Merz has elevated New Delhi in this hierarchy and performed a strategic hard reset of Germany’s role in Southeast Asia.

It has long been a paradox that the relationship between the world’s largest democracy and Europe’s largest economy has underperformed, a story of “all talk and no play”. But perhaps now, under the cloud of a fragmenting global order, the third and fourth largest economies have finally decided to put their words into action to get a semblance of stability.

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Beneath the optics of “kite-diplomacy” was the projection of an iron-clad substance that highlighted that this visit wasn’t a mere celebration of 75 years of ties between the two nations, but a functional launch of new German “Strategic Realism” vis-à-vis India.

For the first time, we observe Berlin shifting from a buyer-seller mentality to a co-developer mindset, as evidenced by the announcement of a “Bilateral Defence Industrial Cooperation”. This has been further accompanied by a potential cooling off of Germany’s notoriously rigid regulatory system, as highlighted when Modi thanked Merz’s efforts in “simplifying the processes related to defence trade.” Whether it is the high-stakes submarine deal, cooperation on critical minerals, or the semiconductor ecosystem partnership, Berlin is no longer just selling to New Delhi; it wants to build together.

The energy transition is a crucial pillar of this newfound realism. A fresh €1.24 billion in funding has been announced for the Green and Sustainable Development Partnership (GSDP), which supports initiatives such as PM e-Bus Sewa, renewable energy, green hydrogen, and climate-resilient urban infrastructure. The long-standing “human-bridge” between the two nations has been further strengthened by the announcement of the recruitment of healthcare professionals and the skilling in renewable energy, as well as an important announcement of a visa-free transit regime for Indian travellers. In total, the 27 actionable outcomes suggest that the Indo-German partnership has finally moved from the boardroom to the streets.

The most delicious irony of this visit lies in what was not on the itinerary. For decades, German Chancellors treated Beijing as a primary spouse and New Delhi as a distant acquaintance. Olaf Scholz attempted to balance that script by choosing Tokyo as his first Asian destination, followed by Beijing and then New Delhi. Friedrich Merz has flipped the hierarchy.

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This pivot wasn’t accidental. In August, the German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, had denounced China’s “increasingly aggressive behaviour” in the Taiwan Strait and the East and South China Seas and had declared that the “fundamental principles” of Europe’s global cooperation “were at stake”. This was followed by the “Wadephul Incident” in October, when the minister’s planned trip to China was met with a cold shoulder from Beijing and was therefore abruptly cancelled by Wadephul. Burned by its past energy addiction to Russia and weary of a “mercurial” China, Berlin has finally woken up. By landing in Ahmedabad first, Merz has signalled that Germany prefers to expand its ties with India, and with the relative predictability of India’s democracy, over the volatility of a systemic rival.

India stands to strategically gain as Germany and, by extension, Europe, emerge as a logical “third pole” that it needs amidst a waning Moscow and a volatile Washington. It is the ideal quid pro quo: Berlin gains a de-risked manufacturing base and partner, as well as a skilled workforce, while New Delhi gains a high-tech partner to re-fuel its ascent as an alternative Asian powerhouse.

The kites at Sabarmati have long since landed, but the momentum they represented for the Indo-German ties must remain airborne. The 27 outcomes won’t measure the success of this visit, but by the speed at which they are implemented and become a reality.

For too long, India and Germany were partners on paper but strangers in practice. Today, they are institutionalising a shared future. As the focus shifts to the upcoming India-EU summit and the potential finalisation of the FTA, the message from Ahmedabad is clear: The wind is finally in the sails for the India-Germany kite to soar. Now, both leaders must ensure they don’t let the string snap.

The writer is a Senior Researcher with the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi. He is a former German Chancellor Fellow (2023-24)