Opinion Fate of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty depends largely on political factors and Delhi-Dhaka ties
The GWT was signed for 30 years and is going to expire in December 2026. However, it can be renewed “on the basis of mutual consent”
India and Bangladesh have agreed in principle to renew the GWT. However, there are physical and political challenges. Also by Nabeela Siddiqui
Amid severe bilateral strain following Sheikh Hasina’s 2024 ouster and exile in India, marked by diplomatic standoffs, concerns over the safety of minorities expressed by New Delhi, and the spreading of anti-India sentiment, renewing the Ganga Water Treaty (GWT) presents a critical test of hydro-diplomacy between New Delhi and Dhaka.
Before the GWT, India and Bangladesh signed an agreement in 1977 to share the waters of the Ganga River, which was followed by ad hoc arrangements. In 1996, with the New Delhi-friendly Sheikh Hasina in power, the Gujral Doctrine towards selective neighbours and West Bengal CM Jyoti Basu’s support, India and Bangladesh signed the treaty.
Under Annexures I and II of the GWT, in the dry season (January 1–May 31), the two countries agreed to share the water of the Ganga at Farakka Barrage, based on 10-day cycles and historical averages based on 40 years (1949-1988) flow data. It’s not a flat 35,000 cusecs to Bangladesh and 40,000 to India. The formula adjusts dynamically. If total flow reaches or exceeds 75,000 cusecs, India gets up to 40,000 cusecs while Bangladesh receives the rest; between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, India takes 40,000, and Bangladesh is guaranteed at least 35,000; below 70,000 cusecs, there will be an equal sharing. Under Article 2 (III) of the GWT, if the flow drops under 50,000 cusecs, “in any 10-day period, the two Governments will enter into immediate consultations to make adjustments on an emergency basis, in accordance with the principles of equity, fair play and no harm to either party”.
The GWT was signed for 30 years and is going to expire in December 2026. However, it can be renewed “on the basis of mutual consent”. India and Bangladesh have agreed in principle to renew the GWT. However, there are physical and political challenges.
Multiple studies confirmed that the Ganga River Basin is in a stressful situation. On the Indian side, a large part of the major states through which the Ganga flows, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, face water scarcity with per capita water availability between 500 and 1000 cubic meters. In Bangladesh, the water level in Padma, as the Ganga is known there, is abnormally declining, causing the emergence of sandbanks, hampering navigability, impacting irrigation and affecting the livelihood of people. It is reported that in the Padma, the normal flow of water is visible only for three to four months in a year. More than 25 tributaries of the Padma have dried due to a lack of water flow from the river. To meet its demand, as media reports say, Bangladesh sought to have a guaranteed release of 40,000 cusecs of water between February and May.
Meanwhile, political hostility between New Delhi and Dhaka has been increasing. Bangladesh’s interim government is not pleased with India giving shelter to Sheikh Hasina. The nature of political ties between the two countries may begin to change after the February 2026 elections in Bangladesh. Moreover, the position of West Bengal on the GWT is significant for the success of any sort of water arrangement. Earlier, on the Teesta River pact, the Union government decided not to go ahead without the assent of West Bengal. There has also been a discord between the Union and the West Bengal government on the GWT renewal. The fate of the GWT largely depends on these political factors.
Ranjan is a Research Fellow at ISAS, National University of Singapore (NUS). Siddiqui is an Assistant Professor, VMLS, VMRF-DU, Chennai
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