5 min readSep 11, 2025 07:21 PM IST
First published on: Sep 11, 2025 at 07:21 PM IST
In a frightening development, a series of Russian drones entered Poland’s airspace, creating panic and alarm all over Europe. This incident may be the gravest breach of NATO territory by Russia since the onset of war in 2022. The breach has left NATO allies on edge, testing their resolve and readiness to deter Russia. It forced NATO to scramble its F-16 and F-35 fighter jets and call into action its airborne warning and patriot missile defence systems to shoot down the Russian drones. From Warsaw’s perspective, this was not an inadvertent error but an intentional Russian provocation to test NATO’s resolve and preparedness.
As a NATO member, Poland made a formal request to activate Article 4, which involves consultation with other members to assess the security situation. It avoided invoking Article 5 of NATO, in which an armed attack on a member is considered an attack on all, necessitating a NATO reciprocation. A larger conflict has been avoided, but one cannot rule out an accidental escalation in the future stemming from such events. Clearly, this incident brought NATO a step closer to direct involvement in the ongoing war in Ukraine, rekindling memories of World War II.
The Eastern European and Baltic states bordering Russia and Belarus are highly vulnerable and wary of a wider escalation of conflict. They do not possess powerful militaries and are largely dependent on American protection. They fear that any escalation may jeopardise their security. President Trump’s policies of negotiating directly with President Putin, relegating European concerns, have created further uncertainties. Therefore, Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are on the edge, waiting for an early ceasefire.
The episode of Russian drones in Poland, however, is not the maiden breach of NATO’s sovereign airspace. In the past, Russian drones and missiles have entered the territories of Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Moldavia. But this was the first time that the drones came from the territories of Belarus, which shares a long border with Poland. Belarus is the sole country that stood firmly with Russia throughout the war and allowed its territory to be used for military purposes. Further, Russia and Belarus are expected to conduct a joint military exercise called Zapad. Halted since 2022, this exercise will start again close to Poland’s eastern border. Warsaw views this as aggressive posturing aimed at intimidation. It has not forgotten that the attack on Ukraine began following a joint military exercise with Belarus in 2022.
The European states have condemned the incursion of Russian drones into Polish territory as an act of aggression. Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, characterised it as “the most serious violation of NATO airspace since the war began”, and condemned it as “intentional, not accidental”. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk called it a deliberate provocation which brought the two sides “the closest to World War II”. Germany and France supported the Polish stance of invoking Article 4 of NATO. The Trump administration’s ambiguity over the Russia-Ukraine war persists. The only saving grace for Poland is that it is a strong ally in Eastern Europe and has good ties with the White House.
Russia denies having sent any drones to Poland. But Russia is barely trusted in European capitals. It is possible that Russian drones were meant for Ukraine and not Poland. But the fact that they entered Polish territory is itself a cause of huge concern. Further, this comes against the backdrop of Russia’s escalation in Ukraine. In its largest-ever strike on Ukraine, Russia sent about 800 drones and 13 ballistic missiles last week, targeting many cities, including government buildings in Kyiv. Poland shares its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and fears that if Ukraine fell to Russia, Poland would be next. Kaliningrad exclave is Russia’s strategic military outpost, which houses S-400 missiles and is the headquarters of its Baltic Fleet. Poland would do everything to halt the Russian advance, but it is constrained by resources, its heavy dependence on the US military, and the growing domestic resentment against Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has taken a heavy toll on Poland’s resources, and people are growing weary of the prolonged conflict in the region. The newly elected Polish president, Karol Nawrocki, who has the backing of the right wing and EU-sceptic Law and Justice party, does not share the enthusiasm of PM Donald Tusk in supporting Ukraine. There is an internal tussle between the two leaders over support for Ukraine. Nawrocki recently objected to a bill involving welfare assistance to Ukrainians. Nawrocki’s support for Ukraine is lukewarm and conditional. This essentially mirrors the condition of Europe, where people are divided over the extent of support to Ukraine.
To sum up, such incidents of drones or missiles crossing into the enemy’s territory are fraught with the risk of being misunderstood, inviting retaliatory military measures. Fortunately, Poland averted a crisis by downplaying the incident and resorting to verbal condemnations and institutional consultations. But in a context of total mistrust and few signs of institutional dialogue, accidents may not always be averted.
The writer is Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi
Poland averted a crisis by downplaying the incident and resorting to verbal condemnations and institutional consultations. 
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