Opinion C Raja Mohan writes on Modi-Trump meet: Let’s make deals

So far so good, but the delicateness of the Indian task in Washington this week should not be underestimated. As Jaishankar put it, the test that Trump presents Indian diplomacy in his second term is quite “out of syllabus”.

For a quarter of a century, since President Bill Clinton’s visit to India in March 2000, the bilateral relationship has been on a continuous upward curve that has defied intensely sceptical conventional wisdom. The nations have found ways to overcome longstanding and difficult disputes, including those over Pakistan and nuclear non-proliferation. As large countries have diverse sets of interests, there are always differences. However, both sides have shown the capacity to prevent them from undermining the expansion of bilateral cooperation.

Today’s discontinuity in India-US diplomacy arises from the Trump administration’s distinctly different domestic and external orientation from not just its recent predecessors but also post-war America. Some would say that what is unfolding under Trump is not a mere regime change but a revolution of sorts driven by the America First movement. At home, Trump is determined to downsize the state, dismantle the regulatory burdens on the tech sector, revive manufacturing, reduce immigration, regain control over borders, and root out the liberal hegemony that has sought to impose a range of “woke values” on the American people. Externally, Trump wants to dethrone the ideology of “globalism” that, in the name of international leadership, has imposed unacceptable burdens on the American people — in the form of trade deficits, immigration, and the squandering of blood and treasure on needless military adventures.

Understanding the ideology and worldview of Trump’s America First coalition and the multiple contradictions within is a part of the diplomatic challenge this week. The other is the diplomatic finesse in handling Trump’s new aggressive negotiating style, coupled with an eagerness for deal-making.

Trump is widely criticised for his “transactional approach” to US diplomacy. This may not be bad for India. What you see is what you get, and there is no confusing ideological rhetoric. Modi is no less transactional. He and his national security team discarded many ideological shibboleths that guided Indian foreign policy in the past. In recent years, Delhi has shown the capacity to downplay the temptation for normative pontification and make deals based on presumed national interests.

The story of the Washington Summit, then, is about pragmatic dealmaking. In a statement before his departure to Paris and Washington, Modi laid out five broad areas of engagement: Trade, defence, energy, technology, and supply chain resilience. In all these areas, there is much room for negotiation.

President Trump has not missed the opportunity to not only praise Modi’s strong leadership but also highlight Delhi’s high import tariffs. Recognising the centrality of the trade issues for Trump, especially the $45 billion trade deficit with India, Delhi has signalled its willingness to bring down some tariffs and open greater market access to US goods. Delhi also appears eager to pick up threads on bilateral trade talks that were left incomplete in Trump’s first term. However, Trump’s expectations and demands from trade partners have significantly increased in the second term.

On energy, where India is a major importer of hydrocarbons and the US is a major producer and exporter, there is room for greater collaboration. Trump is also doubling down on nuclear power to boost America’s AI industry, and Delhi can do so with a rapid expansion of its own nuclear power sector. While the government has recently declared its intent to reform its nuclear laws, it might need clear signals to translate it into reality.

Defence cooperation has emerged as a major pillar of Indo-US relations over the last two decades. Trump is keen on expanding India’s purchase of US defence equipment, and Delhi is looking for more favourable terms of technology transfer and co-production. Delhi and Washington developed a roadmap for defence-industrial cooperation under the Biden administration. This ought to be taken up with greater urgency now, as both Delhi and Washington struggle to cope with the dramatic acceleration of China’s weapons production. This, along with more operational and logistical cooperation, could be at the top of new priorities as the two sides draft a more ambitious new 10-year framework for defence cooperation. The first framework was signed in 2005, and the second in 2015.

Technological cooperation has long been a priority for India in the US. Under the Biden administration, the initiative on critical and emerging technology (iCET) advanced that agenda. However, more needs to be done, as India and the US wake up to China’s innovations in AI and a range of advanced sectors. As technology becomes the main theatre of contestation between the US and China, Delhi has a dual task — to expand the range of cooperation with Washington while limiting the potential US controls over the diffusion of AI and other technologies to India.

The idea of “supply chain resilience” began under the first Trump administration as Delhi and Washington joined forces to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic that exposed the world’s overreliance on China for goods of all kinds. This reliance continues to grow today amid the boom in Chinese manufacturing exports. Addressing this challenge would involve imaginative solutions that the PM can discuss with Trump and in his interaction with American corporate leaders.

Finally, there is an opportunity for the PM and his delegation to watch and reflect on Trump’s effort to dismantle the bureaucratic state in America and downsize the “managerial class” that has acquired enormous power, overshadowing the will of elected leaders. After all, “minimum government and maximum governance” was a slogan that Modi raised back in 2014. In the end, the challenge of dealing with Trump and the rapidly changing global order cannot be met through diplomacy alone; it needs a massive bout of reform at home.

The writer is contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express