Opinion Black Sea Deal: Is it the beginning of the end for the Russia-Ukraine War?

The context of hostilities in the Black Sea

The Russia-Ukraine war quickly expanded into the naval theatre, and maritime domination over the Black Sea has been a continued endeavour for Russia. This is because 90 per cent of Ukrainian exports, especially of agricultural products, go through the Black Sea. In order to establish complete control of the Ukrainian Black Sea trade, Russia has repeatedly attacked its largest port, Odesa, bombing the city with drones, and capturing or sinking Ukrainian commercial and military vessels in the region.

Russia has also used neutral waters beyond the 12-nautical mile territorial water zone of Ukraine to launch surface-to-air missiles. With a range of 400 kilometres, these missiles have had the capability to attack Odesa, and cities further inland, such as Vinnytsia. Air defences deployed in Odesa have been essential but inadequate in this regard, given that other Ukrainian ports in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are shut down. With Russia effectively controlling the important Ukrainian port of Mariupol in the Sea of Azov, commercial shipping and freedom of navigation for both Ukrainian and other foreign vessels have effectively halted in most of the Black Sea.

Consequently, Ukraine has responded with its own maritime military strategy. To begin with, it has manipulated the flow of water to the Russia-controlled Crimea through the North Crimea Canal. Ukraine’s sinking of the flagship guided-missile cruiser of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the Moskva, with two Neptune anti-ship missiles in April 2022, was also noteworthy. And Ukrainian drone and missile attacks against Sevastopol, the home base for said Black Sea fleet, have put the operations of key Russian naval shipyards in jeopardy.

Because of the impacts on shipping of agricultural consumer products and fertilisers, grain and fertiliser prices in the global markets have shot up for brief spurts of time in the past three years, and have overall been in a state of flux. Russia’s erstwhile dominance in the fertiliser supply chain has also dwindled, while exports of fertilisers like Urea from the US and Egypt have expanded.

Can the new deal bring respite?

Amid continuing hostilities and great food insecurity in the world, in July 2022, a “Black Sea Grain Initiative” agreement was brokered between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations. But because of Western sanctions hindering Russian exports of agricultural products and fertilisers, Russia refused to participate in the renewal of the agreement a year later, causing it to expire.

With the new agreement brokered by the US, it is expected that even if not permanent, a long-term ceasefire in the Black Sea will finally allow for freedom of navigation and continuation of trade and commercial shipping. However, this time around, Russia, too, has learned its lesson, and has demanded that Western sanctions on its participation in global agricultural and fertiliser supply chains be immediately lifted, and a sanctioned Russian Bank be connected to the SWIFT international payment system – only then will it see the terms of the agreement through.

One can argue, in this regard, that Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have gained quite some leverage, putting the US and the West on a timeline for the cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea. And US negotiators seem to have fallen in line, with US President Donald Trump himself promising to review the Russian conditions. Further, the Russian delegation reportedly also refused to discuss an unconditional ceasefire because they “did not want it,” signalling a hard stance to negotiation in the face of sanctions. The only guarantees Ukraine received for agreeing to a Black Sea ceasefire was US support in facilitating prisoners of war exchanges and the return of “forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.”

Since US President Donald Trump has taken it upon himself to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, it was only a matter of time before Russia was guaranteed some sanctions relief. Moving forward, the real question is if Putin shall agree to see the provisions of the deal through at all unless his demands are met. From the American perspective, getting Europe on board is the real challenge. As for Ukraine, the deal should not mean the withdrawal of US support for the air defence of its port cities, because even as the negotiations were underway, Russia launched over 100 drone attacks against Ukrainian cities. And so, while it may be a positive sign for global markets and naval shipping that a Black Sea Initiative 2.0 has been brokered, its implementation, and the pursuit of real peace, is still under question.

Anushka Saxena is Staff Research Analyst, Indo-Pacific Studies Programme, Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru