5 min readMar 21, 2026 06:51 AM IST
First published on: Mar 21, 2026 at 06:51 AM IST
Elections to assemblies in four states and a Union Territory, scheduled for April, are going to be a test for the national parties — the BJP and Congress. West Bengal will be the most high-stakes election in this round. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) won the past three assembly elections. It faces a serious challenge from the BJP, whose vote share has increased from 4 per cent in 2011 to 38 per cent in 2020, and from no seats in 2011 to 77 seats 10 years later.
The BJP entered the West Bengal assembly in 2016 with three seats and a vote share of about 10 per cent, but quickly established itself as a major force by attracting TMC dissidents and a large number of grassroots supporters of the Congress and Left parties. In 2020, Suvendu Adhikari, a senior TMC leader and Banerjee’s bête noire, joined the BJP along with several others, making the party the major challenger to West Bengal’s ruling party. In the assembly elections, a year later, Adhikari fought against Banerjee in Nandigram. Five years later, it is going to be a direct fight between the TMC and the BJP.
In the past 15 years, Banerjee’s government has failed in providing effective governance to a state that had already suffered enormously over three decades of Left rule. West Bengal still has high levels of unemployment. The Banglar Yuva Sathi scheme, announced just before the election, offers a meagre Rs 1,500 per month to unemployed youth. Yet, a large number of people have reportedly rushed to apply, substantiating the allegation that her government failed miserably in generating employment and spurring industrial growth.
Banerjee faces a serious incumbency challenge as several of her traditional support groups, like women and Muslims, have not received the promised benefits. The R G Kar Medical College rape and murder case and the gang rape at Durgapur are among the several incidents of violence against women in recent years. But the BJP has to face the TMC at three levels. One, like the Left parties in the past, the TMC has reportedly politicised a large section of the state bureaucracy, right down to the village level, and converted it into party machinery. Two, the TMC has an organisational presence across the state with a lot of muscle power. Three, it also depends on a hired political agent.
Bengal is a challenge not only for the BJP but for the Election Commission as well. Conducting elections in a peaceful and orderly manner is an enormous task. It conducted the SIR successfully and deleted 6.1 million names from the voters’ list. Another 6 million doubtful voters have been asked to prove their credentials. Intimidation of voters by TMC’s goons, cameras being switched off in polling stations during polling time, and the possibility of impersonation, possibly with the aid of the administration and law-and-order machinery, are the challenges the Commission needs to check to ensure a fair election, which could lead to the end of Banerjee’s 15-year rule.
The election results in Assam appear to be a foregone conclusion. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has proved to be an excellent administrator. Under his leadership, the state has become one of the top-growing economies in the country, consistently registering GDP growth rates well above the national average. The Chief Minister remains hugely popular with his aggressive political posturing. On the other hand, Congress, under Priyanka Gandhi’s supervision, is in a mess with several senior leaders leaving it and joining the BJP in recent months.
Kerala will witness another interesting election. Rahul Gandhi’s presence in Kerala has coincided with Congress’s decline in the state, much like what has happened with the party at the national level. Governments in the state have traditionally alternated between the LDF and the UDF. But the LDF broke that cycle in 2021 and returned to power for a second consecutive term. Like in Assam, Congress in Kerala is mired in factionalism, and many of its senior leaders are disgruntled.
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry have been bastions for regional parties for decades. The scenario is likely to continue in this election and won’t change till one of the national parties takes a long-term vision and seeks to grow independently.
The BJP could see an upward surge in all the pound-bound assemblies. It’s the Congress that faces the real challenge. Despite tall claims by some of its leaders, the party’s failure is writ large in Assam. It faces a real test in Kerala, where losing the election may lead to the disintegration and collapse of the party in the state. It’s an acid test for family feudalism.
The writer, president India Foundation, is with the BJP
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry have been bastions for regional parties for decades. The scenario is likely to continue in this election and won’t change till one of the national parties takes a long-term vision and seeks to grow independently.
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