Opinion Suhas Palshikar writes: Ajit Pawar’s death is tragedy that will make Maharashtra politics more unpredictable
For the past 10 years, Maharashtra’s politics has been on a cusp: As it pursued its aim to emerge as the only dominant pole, the BJP not only decimated its national competitor — the Congress party — but also wiped out regional space. Ajit Pawar’s tragic death has ensured that politics in the state will become more contingent and unpredictable
It was during his tenure as Guardian minister, Ajit Pawar got the NCP to power in the Pune civic body. (File Photo) A tragic death by accident should not determine how politics shifts. But over the past three decades — more so over the past few years — Ajit Pawar occupied a location so critical that his untimely death forces even his grieving followers, in this moment of loss, to grapple with this question: What next?
Ajit dada, as he was popularly called, had no reason to be travelling early in the morning to Baramati to campaign for the ongoing Zilla Parishad elections, but such are the demands made by the enterprise called modern competitive politics that leaders have to necessarily risk not merely their well being and privacy but also their lives — often literally — to meet them. In a sense, his death is a sad comment on the manner in which not just his party but all parties depend on top leaders even for a local election.
Ajit Pawar’s sudden exit pushes both factions of the NCP into a turmoil and also changes many equations in state politics. After the Assembly elections last year, the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP had emerged as the more popular one — forcing an existential crisis on the faction led by founder Sharad Pawar. During the recent municipal corporation elections in the state, the two factions had initiated the process of rapprochement, portending a headache for the state BJP and bringing sleepless nights for the opposition.
In his absence now, Ajit Pawar’s own faction will be in disarray. While many of his followers, as well as prominent leaders of his faction, are also emotionally attached to Pawar Senior, a smooth reunion was not guaranteed. Loyalty and personal attachment are not exactly values cherished by the new politics of Maharashtra. The compulsions of ensuring a share in power constitute the most important defining feature of political choices today. Ajit dada remained within this calculus of politics. His followers will now have to choose from three options: Run the party independently and evolve a space for it; go back to Sharad Pawar as their leader; or take shelter under the BJP’s umbrella.
Usually, when a dominant party is in an ascendant position, the first possible response to it comes through the formation of a regional player. In Maharashtra, the four players that emerged from the ravages of the NCP and the Shiv Sena have been struggling to occupy that space. Both Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde sought to assert a separate identity even while subscribing to the political anthem of Modi-led development. So far, though, they were unable to take a regionalist stance upfront. Both were also seeking to win the Maratha votes that matter in state politics. But with a dominant state BJP, they made limited headway. Ajit Pawar also sought to carve out ideological autonomy by repeatedly indicating that he was not interested in minority-bashing, like the senior partner. Overall, after joining the Mahayuti, Ajit Pawar was adopting the strategy of running with the hare and hunting with the hound.
Under pressure from the BJP, he was struggling to develop his party machinary and his overtures to the other NCP faction were a sign that all was not well between the two allies. Like the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, Ajit dada’s NCP was realising that the BJP won’t easily cede the regional space nor allow it to consolidate the traditional social space. The coming together of the two NCPs might have helped but now things will hang in an uncertain space of emotion and harsh calculation. The irony and tragedy of the moment is that even the veteran leader Sharad Pawar will find his party vacillating between opening up to power-sharing and the challenge of standing as a party.
When Ajit dada chose to join the Mahayuti, the move was seen as helping the BJP. Yet, paradoxically, the separate existence of his party, its decent performance in the Assembly election and the bitter spat between Ajit dada and the BJP during the recent urban local elections ensured that in a state where the opposition has disappeared, there remained some power centre that occasionally countered the dominant party. With Ajit Pawar’s departure, it is uncertain if that countervailing power within the Mahayuti — an opposition within the ruling coalition — will hold on or wither away.
Ajit dada leaves behind a few pockets of electoral strength, as was evidenced by the last Assembly elections. There are quite a few locally powerful players who will now be at liberty to make their own choices. Ajit dada also leaves behind a large number of non-ideological but keen youngsters eager to “make it” in public life. His close association with many organisations, platforms and the Maratha voters in particular was another asset that Ajit dada held over his rivals. This vast repository of resources will now be competitively wooed, persuaded and sought out. In all likelihood, it will seamlessly move closer to the BJP.
For the past 10 years, Maharashtra’s politics has been on a cusp: As it pursued its aim to emerge as the only dominant pole, the BJP not only decimated its national competitor — the Congress party — but also wiped out regional space. Developments have repeatedly punctuated this turn of politics. Ajit Pawar’s tragic death has ensured that politics in the state will become more contingent and unpredictable, at least for the time being.
The writer, based in Pune, taught political science
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