The Golden Stars and Stripes

W.W. Norton

Pages: 360,27.95

Anyone even remotely interested in Asias strategic future will find it rewarding to pick up Princeton University Professor Aaron Friedbergs volume on the past,present and the likely future of Sino-US relations. The sub-title of the volume,the struggle for mastery in Asia,is a take off on historian A.J.P. Taylors classic work on European diplomacy from the middle of the 19th century to the First World War.

The substance of the volume as well as its delineation lives up to the billing,as Friedberg delivers a definitive assessment of the changing balance of power in Asia and its implications for war and peace in the great continent.

The propositions that the United States is on a path of relative decline and China on a trajectory of rapid rise have become part of the conventional wisdom since the financial crisis engulfed the world a few years ago.

Few in the world question the proposition that the relationship between the United States and China is the single most important strategic equation of our time.

Rising Chinas assertion of her national interests on its periphery and Washingtons proclamation of Americas return to Asia have set the stage for a new phase in the regions international relations. Yet,there is no credible and easily accessible work on the unfolding changes in the Sino-American relationship. Friedbergs A Contest for Supremacy fills that gap.

Avoiding the forbidding jargon of contemporary academic writing on international relations,Friedberg gives us a volume that is a pleasure to read and reflect upon.

As a former policymaker who served in the administration of George W. Bush,Friedberg brings the insights from the real world into an assessment of where Washington and Beijing are headed and how they might reshape the Asian security order.

While Indias policymakers are struggling to cope with the new challenges from the US-China power shift,the public discourse is a long way behind. Indias public debate on international affairs is focused far too narrowly on bilateral relations with major nations to appreciate the complex dynamics that produce competition and cooperation between other great powers and the consequences for the international system as a whole. Given Delhis dominant tradition of viewing the world through the lens of left or liberal internationalism,Indian academic and policy communities devote little attention to the nature of power in the international system and the changes in its distribution.

If the ebb and flow of great power relations is one of the decisive elements of international politics,Delhi had big trouble dealing with Soviet-American relations during the Cold War. Despite the talk of non-alignment between Washington and Moscow at the beginning of the Cold War,India ended up on the losing Russian side by the end of it. For Delhi could not escape the impact of the Soviet-American rivalry on its own neighbourhood.

For the foreseeable future,the changing fortunes of China and the United States and the complexity of their bilateral relationship are likely to be the most important external variables in Indias foreign and security policies.

Friedbergs incisive analysis should remind the Indian strategic community that the Sino-US relationship is vastly different from that we saw between Washington and Moscow in the Cold War.

Unlike Soviet Russia,China is now an integral part of the world capitalist system. It is already the worlds second largest economy and might overtake the United States in aggregate GDP in the not too distant future.

The Sino-US relationship,then,is bound to be far more consequential for India than the US-Soviet dynamic during the Cold War.

Whether Beijing and Washington confront each other or collude to devise a bilateral condominium for Asia,India will find itself in a challenging situation.

Given his intellectual convictions as a political Realist,Friedberg has long argued that geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing might be inevitable. In this work though,Friedberg takes great care to review all the major lines of argument in the United States on the importance of engaging China and the dangers of making it an enemy. Friedbergs analysis is also enriched by a solid review of the strategic discourse within China on Beijings place in the world and how it must deal with Washington.

Friedberg walks us through the evolution of Sino-US relations over the last few decades,presents the emerging areas of contestation,and examines the prospects for mitigating the tension through bilateral engagement and regional cooperation. He concludes that if Washington fails to respond effectively at this juncture to Chinas assertiveness,future American leaders might find it much harder to restrain Beijing.

As Asia monitors US approach to China,Friedberg warns that any American ambivalence will have a disastrous effect on the region. He points to the emerging signs of anxiety emanating from some Asian capitals about Americas willingness and ability in the long run to maintain its position of regional military preponderance.

Friedberg argues that what might seem like a responsible approach towards China in Washington could look like resignation and the start of a slow retreat and trigger a cascade of Asian appeasement of a rising China.

As a foreign policy adviser to Mitt Romney,the front-runner in the current race for Republican Partys presidential nomination,Friedbergs views on US relations with China and Asia could have some influence if there is a regime change in Washington this November.