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Several routes to Bhavan yet

The SP-Trinamool announcement has upset Congress calculations in the presidential election involving an electoral college of 10,98,882 votes

Written by Express News Service | Published: June 14, 2012 1:36:49 am

The SP-Trinamool announcement has upset Congress calculations in the presidential election involving an electoral college of 10,98,882 votes.

The numbers:

* UPA: Including TMC,it has 42% vote share. Hopes to get support of SP (6% vote share) and BSP (over 4%). Should TMC move away,this tally dips to 48%,below the half-way mark. SP loss would bring numbers further down. Congress will then look at Left,others.

* NDA: 28% vote share.

* Others: 24%,including non-NDA,non-Congress parties such as the SP,BSP,AIADMK,BJD,Left,TDP,TRS,PDP,JD(S) and INLD. Another 6% vote share held by small formations and Independents.

The scenarios:

* Congress could reach some understanding with Mulayam and Mamata,such as meeting their demands for special packages for their states. That would ensure a smooth victory for a UPA candidate.

* Mulayam and Mamata stick together,in which case they will have to do business with the NDA,a prospect that neither is likely to relish.

* BJP chooses to stay in the background,letting SP,TMC take the lead. Since the NDA would neither back Manmohan Singh nor Somnath Chatterjee,this will boost Kalam.

The maths:

* NDA,SP,TMC can together mobilise 38.63% votes. UPA without TMC would have 37.63% votes. If UPA can turn to BSP and Left,NDA can reach out to AIADMK,TDP,BJD and other anti-Congress parties.

* Left is allergic to Kalam and in case Mamata is parting company with Congress,Left may be keen to chip in to widen the gap between its two adversaries. BSP,even though unpredictable,may prefer sticking to Congress. BJP,on the other hand,will have difficulty persuading JD(U) to give up its opposition to Kalam. JD(U) wants a seasoned politician for the post.

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