The private sector is expected to contribute over 60 per cent of the total power generation capacity addition targeted for the 12th Five Year Plan,rating agency ICRA said.
“The sector is expected to add around 54,000 mw of capacity during the 12th Plan out of the 88,000 mw target,” ICRA said in its report.
Currently,thermal capacity of about 85,000 mw is under construction across the country,of which nearly 63 per cent is being undertaken by the private sector,it said.
“During the 11th Plan period,54,962 mw was added,of which nearly 42 per cent was contributed by private sector.”
According to the report,nearly 80 per cent of the total 54,000 mw capacity to be added by the private sector during the period,is likely to come up in the next three years.
However,capacity addition from FY16 could be adversely affected due to deferment of fresh investment plans and slow progress in revival of many projects under planning stage,ICRA noted.
“Increased fuel supply risks,both arising out of rising domestic coal shortages as well as uncertainty over domestic gas supply will pose greater challenges,” it said.
Domestic thermal coal deficit for the power sector would increase to about 210 MMT by FY17 from the current 55 MMT. As a result,dependence on coal imports would increase from 12 per cent in FY12 to 20 per cent by FY15 and further to 25 per cent by FY17,it said.
“This in turn would put an upward pressure on cost of power generation going forward,as well as,expose the domestic power sector to the regulatory and political risks in coal exporting countries such as Indonesia and Australia.”
Further,fall in domestic gas supplies has affected the plant load factor (PLF) level,which declined from 66 per cent in FY11 to 48 per cent in FY13 (till August 2012),it said.
“As a result,gas-based stations located in Andhra Pradesh and having allocation from Reliance Industries as well as upcoming projects with aggregate capacity of 8,000 MW are most adversely affected,” ICRA said.