Insufficient rain this month has forced the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to make a downward revision in its rainfall forecast for the season,even though it has predicted good rain in July and August.
In its updated forecast issued today,IMD said rainfall in the four-month season would likely be 96 per cent of the average,downgrading its April prediction of 99 per cent rain. The revision was mainly on account of below-normal rainfall just 76 per cent in the country as a whole between June 1 and 21,IMD said.
However,rainfall for… the month of July is likely to be 98 per cent of its LPA (long period average) and that for… August 96 per cent of LPA,both with a model error of 9 per cent, the IMD statement said.
The forecast for regional distribution of rainfall is not encouraging for any geographical region except the north-east,which is likely to get 99 per cent rain. The north-western region,comprising UP,Uttarakhand,Delhi,Rajasthan,Haryana,Punjab,Himachal and J&K,is likely to receive just 93 per cent,IMD said. The southern peninsula is likely to get 95 per cent and central India 96 per cent for the season.
The forecast is likely to be taken as the first official warning about the monsoon,especially in light of the chance that El Nino conditions may develop in the Pacific region.