The real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to recover to 7.6 percent in the current fiscal,on the back of an expected good monsoon and easing of supply constraints,economic think-tank CMIE forecast in its latest report.
“As supply constraints ease,growth in real economy is expected to recover to 7.6 percent in FY 13,” Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review of domestic economy here.
The GDP is estimated to have slowed to 6.8 percent in the previous fiscal (FY 12),it said.
CMIE said the inflation is expected to ease to 6.7 per cent in FY13 from 8.8 percent in FY12. Interest rates have also eased after RBI’s 50 basis points policy rate cut.
The industrial sector growth is projected to accelerate to 6.8 percent in FY13 from 4.1 percent in the preceding year. Services sector growth is also expected to maintain its trend growth of over nine percent,it said.
CMIE said that assuming normal rainfall,farm sector output is projected to rise by 2.4 percent in FY13. This would be the fourth straight year of increase in farm income though growth is expected to moderate after a seven percent rise in FY11.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast normal rainfall at one percent below the long period average (LPA) during the 2012 South-west monsoon season. If accurate,this would be the third successive year of normal rainfall.
Monsoon rainfall during 2010 and 2011 had remained over two percent of the LPA.