Art of the Deal
Indo-US defence industrial collaboration that has emerged at the very top of the bilateral agenda.
Ashley Tellis,the India-born American strategic analyst,has made a reputation for himself by playing a critical role in promoting Indo-US relations in the last few years. After making a decisive contribution to the conceptualisation and negotiation of the historic civil nuclear initiative between the two countries,Tellis now steps into an even more complex domain Indo-US defence industrial collaboration that has emerged at the very top of the bilateral agenda.
His new monograph,Dogfight!,analyses the complex military,technical and political choices confronting Delhis decision-makers in selecting a new medium-range multi-role combat aircraft MMRCA for the Indian Air Force.
Given its size worth more than 10 billion and the expansive international interest in it,the deal has certainly attracted widespread attention. Yet,there has been little informed assessment of the factors that will make up Indias final decision. Tellis plugs this huge gap with his incisive yet accessible analysis.
Although India has been one of the worlds major importers of weapons for decades,the quality of the nations internal debate on defence purchases has been pitiful. This has been especially true since the 1980s scandal on the purchase of the Bofors gun that helped defeat Rajiv Gandhi and continues to haunt the Congress party quarter of a century later. The obsessive focus on corruption has indeed paralysed decision-making at the level of civilian bureaucracy and political leadership on issues relating to the modernisation of the Indian military forces. As a result,Indian armed forces are today under-equipped and in danger of falling behind their regional rivals.
Unlike in the 1990s when India was strapped financially and had to put defence modernisation on the back burner,money is no longer the problem. In the past,the source of international supply of arms was limited to Russia,a few West European nations and Israel. With the United States now emerging as a new source for advanced conventional weapons,Indias options on the global arms market have expanded considerably.
With a severe recession affecting most arms manufacturers,India has never enjoyed the kind of leverage it can exercise today in the choice of weapons,price,terms of technology transfer,and the prospects for building a strong base for defence industrial production at home. If the big question is whether Indian defence policymakers are smart enough to take advantage,the MMRCA decision is indeed the decisive test.
Last year,the IAF has completed field trials of six jet fighters two US fighters,F16 and F-18,the French Rafael,Europes Eurofighter,the Russian MiG-35 and Swedens Gripen. It is now the turn of the defence bureaucracy and the political leadership to make the final call.
Tellis offers three important recommendations for India dont delay the decision,dont split the deal between different vendors,and do it right by the needs of the Indian Air Force,by effectively integrating judgments on technical performance,cost and geopolitical considerations.
If Washington wants an American aircraft to win the game, Tellis suggests,the US will need to offer generous terms on the transfer of technology,assure India access to fifth-generation US combat aircraft,and provide strong support for Indias strategic ambitions.
Whether one agrees with Tellis or not,there is no denying that he raises the bar on the MMRCA discourse and offers a rigorous template for public debate on Indias defence purchases. Anyone interested in Indias defence modernisation and its fighter aircraft decision will find Tellis new monograph a necessary and insightful read.
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