After decades,UK looks at coalition: Cameron makes Clegg an offer

It was expected that Prime Minister Gordon Brown may refuse to quit and try for a coalition arrangement with the

LibDems. The central issue is the electoral system.

The LibDems do not like the first past the post system,in which they have 23% of the vote compared to Labour’s 29%,but only a fifth of the seats that Labour has. The Conservatives also suffer some disadvantage but they do not want proportional representation,in which no party will ever achieve a majority by itself.

So,expectations were that the Conservatives would not try a coalition but Labour would. Then,suddenly,at 2.30 pm (7 pm in India) on May 7,David Cameron,the leader of the Conservative Party,came out with a dramatic offer. He offered the LibDems an arrangement in which the parties agree on certain planks,and an All Party Committee to consider political and electoral reform with no prior conditions.

Cameron surprised everyone who thought that the Conservatives would try and rule as a minority party with outside support. If the LibDems accept the offer,there may be a joint government which would be quite unusual outside wartime. This may give him the right to get the budget passed this year,and then let the government last until something comes along to trigger a breakdown and new elections.

But there is a new situation. The LibDems are a hyper-democratic party and nothing can be done by the leadership without the consent of their MPs. So they will gather later on Saturday — May 8 — to consider what their leader,Nick Clegg,will put to them.

Normally,one Prime Minister loses and resigns and within 24 hours vacates 10 Downing Street and a new Prime Minister moves in. Now,we do not know how many days it will take for a new government to be agreed upon.

Of course,the formal arrangements involve the Queen,who takes no interest in these negotiations. When there is a viable majority coalition,Brown will tender his resignation,and the Queen will call the leader of the new coalition. For the time being,we have one outgoing government which has still not gone,and one or two possible coalitions,one of which may crystallise in a government.

On the Continent,they are used to taking weeks before a government can be formed. In Belgium or the Netherlands,negotiations are carried out for months. The situation is different in Britain.

This is not just because the political culture is much more adversarial. Given the deficit and debt situation,the country cannot afford to have a government which looks as if it lacks will power. The Conservatives have the reputation of being tough,and the markets trust them to take the hard road for deficit reduction. Given what is happening in Greece,there is a sense of foreboding that there could be blood on the streets if urgent action is not taken.

The risk that Cameron carries is that the coalition may lead to a stalemate in policymaking. It may be difficult to cut government spending if your coalition partner is a spending party. This will make his party unhappy since they do not share the basic instincts of the LibDems who are on the left of centre.

Clegg’s problem is that he leads a party which is full of independent spirits who may well reject Cameron’s offer. They may find association with a rightwing party odious.

Yet,there is impeccable good behaviour on all sides while these complex manouevres are carried out. British politics no doubt has maturity. The question is,can an old dog learn new tricks?