RJD’s out, be neutral: Paswan to Sonia

The Congress is under great pressure from Laloo Prasad Yadav to give a letter of support for a RJD-led combine to Governor Buta Singh. If Laloo gets the formal support of the 10-member Congress and gets a few independent MLAs on his side (the 2-member BSP has already declared support), he can exceed the NDA figure of 91 and stake claim to form the government.

Laloo’s calculation, sources said, is that once Rabri Devi is sworn in as chief minister, then he will manage to get a majority. But even in order to reach that stage, Congress support is essential—without the 10 Congress MLAs he cannot get anywhere near the NDA tally; and more important, without the Centre’s nod, Buta Singh is unlikely to give the RJD a chance to form the government.

Meanwhile, Paswan, who met Ahmad Patel, Arjun Singh and Sonia Gandhi in separate meetings through the day, did not budge from his repeatedly stated position and offered two options to the Congress leadership:

• All non-RJD, non-BJP forces come together to form a government in order to respect both the anti-RJD mandate and the secular principle

• Failing that, President’s Rule would ensure the ‘‘cleaning up’’ of the system in Bihar to usher in ‘‘peace and development’’

Paswan refused to reveal Sonia Gandhi’s response to his proposals but spoke at length about what he told her, and repeatedly made it clear that his 29-member strong LJP would oppose any government that included the RJD or BJP on the floor of the House.

Paswan’s first proposal—the formation of a non-RJD, non-BJP government—is arithmetically possible. The combined strength of the RJD (74) and BJP (37) works out to 111 in a 243-member Assembly. If both are kept out, the remaining MLAs would be 132—11 more than the half-way mark.

But Paswan himself conceded that while such an option was fine on paper, it was ‘‘not practically viable’’ right now. A non-RJD secular formation can only come about if the JD (U) breaks away from the BJP, the Congress and Left parties ditch RJD, and all the remaining MLAs belonging to CPI(M-L), BSP, SP, and the assortment of independents are brought on board.

Within hours of Paswan’s publicly aired proposal, JD(U) leader Sharad Yadav declared that his party was not going to break away from BJP. The Congress, without categorically rejecting the proposal, reiterated their support for the formation of a ‘‘secular’’ government in Bihar and Jharkhand. Party spokesman Anand Sharma said, ‘‘Congress is making efforts to get all political parties who believe in secularism onto the same platofrm.’’

Asked if the Congress was willing to take JD(U) on board, Sharma snapped, ‘‘We would like the constituents of UPA to work towards the formation of a secular government. We are not talking to any NDA constituent.’’

According to well placed sources, the Congress leadership too is not averse to a spell of President’s Rule (Central rule after all means UPA rule by proxy) but would like to go ‘‘through the motions’’ of attempting to put a ‘‘secular’’ government in place.

As in the run-up to the Bihar elections, the Congress continues to be divided on its post-poll strategy. One view is that the Congress should back Laloo fully. If the RJD fails to win the vote of confidence because of the LJP, then the Congress can at least claim that it did not go back on its commitment to form a secular government.

The second view, held strongly by the Congress’s state unit, is to go in for President’s Rule. During his meeting with Sonia Gandhi, Paswan stressed that the Congress had won eight of the 10 seats on an anti-RJD platform and fighting the RJD in Bihar would eventually lead to the Congress party’s revival in the state.

Barring the RJD which is bent on forming the government, most political parties would prefer a spell of President’s Rule at this stage. The CPI(M-L) has already given a letter to the governor asking him not to invite either RJD or NDA to form the government. The 4-member Samajwadi Party is also likely to follow suit. And with ‘‘kingmaker’’ Paswan refusing to turn the key, the deadlock in Bihar is likely to continue for the next few days.