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Thursday, October 22, 2020

Shrinking Society

In 2012,somewhere on the planet,the 7 billionth living person came into existence.

August 18, 2013 5:53:47 am

In 2012,somewhere on the planet,the 7 billionth living person came into existence. While this person celebrated his or her birthday,dire reports noted the stress of food,energy and water on the Earth.

However,it took humankind 13 years to add its 7 billionth inhabitant; longer than the 12 years it took to add the 6th billionth—the first time in history that interval had grown.

That means population decline. The way things are going,the global population will max out at 9 billion by 2070,then by 2200 the global population will fall to half of what is today and by 2300,we are looking at 1 billion. The biggest drops are projected for East Asia and Eastern Europe,a region stretching from the Baltic to the Balkans and eastward to Georgia.

Western Europe as a whole will most likely shrink from 460 million to just 350 million by the end of the century. In Russia and China,populations are expected to fall by half.


2010 population: 81,624,000

Forecast 2050 population: 71,510,000

Per cent decrease: 12.4%

2010 population over age 65: 20%

Fertility Rate: 1.3

Net Migration Rate: -1

Germany has the world’s second-oldest population,after Japan. In its most recent census,Germany discovered it had lost 1.5 million inhabitants. By 2060,the country could shrink by an additional 19 per cent.


2010 population: 38,186,000

Forecast 2050 population: 31,849,000

Per cent decrease: 16.6 %

2010 population over age 65: 13%

Fertility Rate: 1.4

Net Migration Rate: 0

By 2050,there will be only two working people for each retired person in Poland.


2010 population: 45,864,000

Forecast 2050 population: 35,273,000

Per cent decrease: 23.1%

2010 population over age 65: 16%

Fertility Rate: 1.5

Net Migration Rate: 0

Ukraine is Europe’s fastest-shrinking country; over the next 40 years,the population is expected to decrease by 23.1 per cent.


2010 population: 127,370,000

Forecast 2050 population: 95,152,000

Per cent decrease: 25.3%

2010 population over age 65: 23%

Fertility Rate: 1.4

Net Migration Rate: -1

Japan has the world’s largest concentration of the elderly at 23 per cent of the total population. This combined with its low fertility rate and negative migration rate make Japan the world’s fastest shrinking country. By 2050,its population is expected to have declined by one-fourth from its current level.

South Korea

2010 population: 48,875,000

Forecast 2050 population: 42,343,000

Per cent decrease: 13.4%

2010 population over age 65: 11%

Fertility Rate: 1.2

Net Migration Rate: 1

South Korea’s fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world.

A fertility rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for a population. The global fertility rate is 2.5. The net migration rate is the difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country per 1,000 persons. An excess of persons leaving the country results in a negative net migration rate.

Source: Population Reference Bureau

Compiled by Priyanka Kotamraju

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