Maharashtra: Sugar-coating Confusion

So damaging has been the outcome of the government’s rule to the Congress prospects that at the extended general body meeting of the Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee on January 2, this year, a resolution was moved to invite Sonia to address public meetings in the Vidharba, Marathwada, western Maharashtra and North Maharashtra regions. The power tussle between MPCC president Govindrao Adik and Deshmukh is largely responsible for the dismal performance of the Congress in the state.

And then there is the Hindutva factor that Shiv Sena and the BJP is striving to bring alive. The Congress, on its part, is not sure whether they should adopt a soft Hindutva stand, a la Gujarat, or stick to the secular platform.

The party cadre has been pressurising the leadership to start talking about Hindutva since they feel that in a majority of the districts polarisation is seeping in. ‘‘We have to talk the language of the saffron parties. The people do not listen to all this secular mumbo-jumbo,’’ says a MPCC office bearer. The cadre is divided on the issue of alliances too. While some moot the idea of a pre-poll alliance with the NCP, Adik firmly opposes any such move. ‘‘We have our own strength, so why should we align with anyone?’’ asks Adik.

Both the Congress and NCP are strong in the western Maharashtra region, which is the hotbed of the sugar lobby. Given the present strength in this region, both parties are not likely to relinquish their seats in favour of any alliance. Vidharba is another bone of contention. Though the NCP does not have much presence in the region they are making moves for an enhanced presence here presenting fresh worries for the Congress.

Madhya Pradesh: Digging In

IT was in Panchmarhi in Madhya Pradesh that the Congress decided to forego alliances, and while at the Centre the party may well have reason to rethink this strategy, at least in the state where the resolution was first adopted this is hardly a matter of concern. Here politics is a two-party game, with the BSP as a marginal player in the areas adjoining Uttar Pradesh. In any case, if any alliance is at all possible in the run up to the polls, it is the one between the BSP and the BJP.

To talk of the Congress in MP is to talk of one person, chief minister Digvijay Singh, which is a far cry from the situation nine years ago when he took over. But as the elections approach, in the wake of Gujarat, Singh is suddenly faced with an entirely different political scenario. The BJP cadre who till recently had seemed all set for another term in the Opposition now feel this election can be won, and in Uma Bharati they have found someone who has come up with a coherent, emotive strategy to take on Singh.

In a state where the polarisations are much less, where the communal climate so far is at a much lower pitch compared to Gujarat, perhaps Digvijay can still see the party through. Of course good roads and a decent power situation would have helped his cause better.

HARTOSH SINGH BAL, Bhopal

Chhattisgarh: Bumpy Ride

Carved out of Madhya Pradesh in November 2000, for its distinctive tribal identity, Chhattisgarh is one state where the Assembly elections are going to be different in many ways than one. While the BJP believes it can take legitimate credit for the formation of the state, Congress swears by its adivasi-cum-dalit agenda to retain power.

Ajit Jogi was desptached from Delhi to cash in on tribal sentiments. But two years down the line, not only Jogi’s caste credentials have come under question but his potential rivals in the party are baying for his head. “Jogi’s leadership and his competence to lead the government effectively has been well established by now. There is no voice of dissidence,’’ claims senior-most minister Ram Chandra Singh Deo.

Prominent amongst the Jogi-baiters, Vidya Charan Shukla, a former union minister, has issued a public appeal through newspapers, asking people to vote for a change. In the run-up to the polls, there is also a demand for change of guards in the PCC. Senior leaders, including Shyama Charan Shukla and Moti Lal Vohra have been lobbying to get lightweight PCC president Ramanujlal Yadav axed. And that’s something that puts them squarely with Jogi. ‘‘There is no need for change in PCC leadership,’’ he says.

Now when V.C. Shukla is mooting a third front — he already has formed a Chhattisgarh Sangarsh Parishad — a “non political body” of farmers, Congress worries are bound to multiply.

— Ashwani Sharma, Raipur

Rajasthan: Bypoll Jolt

They just don’t want to talk about it. And when they do, they blame the whole world for misreading the situation, claiming that defeat in the December bypolls was not really a defeat.

‘‘Look at it this way. The BJP had a divided house and a divided leadership. Resentment with Vasundhara Raje’s appointment as state chief was at its peak. And yet, they won. One wonders what the Congress was thinking,’’ says Basu Deo of the state CPI (M) unit.

And what exactly is troubling the Congress? ‘‘People briefing Sonia Gandhi on the state politics are not in touch with ground reality. All yardsticks that indicate the government’s good governance have been brushed aside and we are yet to sit down and work out a strategy for the coming elections,’’ complains state Planning and Health Minister C.P. Joshi.

Countering Joshi’s introspection is Finance Minister Pradyuman Singh, who believes the Congress will sweep the Assembly elections later this year. He is banking on the ‘‘work that has been done in the social and developmental sectors’’, the power reforms and the fact that Gehlot has the image of a ‘‘good, clean politician’’.

But detractors like CPI-M’s Deo are quick to respond: ‘‘Today, their credentials are no better than the BJP’s.’’ And there are other signs that development and governance are not going to be on anyone’s agenda this year. ‘‘The Congress is nervous after Gujarat. So nervous that the Raj Bhavan organises the Morari Bapu event, suggesting that the Congress is seriously thinking of using the Hindu card,’’ says political scientist P.D. Sharma.

According to Sharma, the fate of the party in the coming elections will depend upon how much Congress can appease the Rajputs and balance that with its Jat vote bank, who are rallying for reservation. The reported plan to create two new deputy CM posts is being seen as one such appeasement move.

— Anuradha Nagaraj, Jaipur

Delhi: Capital Blues

Congress in Delhi was a faction-ridden loose unit till 1998. Even after five years in Opposition, the party was in no position to put up a united fight against the BJP. Sheila Dikshit was made the DPCC president mainly because she was seen as a leader who did not belong to any of the factions. Being Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s choice for the post, she could also rein in the warring satraps of Delhi, Sajjan Kumar, Jagdish Tytler, H.K.L. Bhagat and J.P. Aggarwal, and turn their collective experience towards energising the party.

Besides the hope that her neutral leadership gave to the DPCC, another winning factor that worked in her favour was the soaring price of onion and potatoes. Faced with an enormous anti-incumbency wave augmented by the additional challenge of the onion price rise, even the BJP had to, in a last-ditch effort, replace Sahib Singh Verma with Sushma Swaraj as the Chief Minister, a gamble that proved to be suicidal.

The Dikshit Government disinvested the power sector by privatising power last year. The results have to be seen in the summer next, and would be crucial in the election year. The main USP of the Dikshit Government is its perceived clean image. The second line of her leadership, mainly represented by Ajay Maken and A.K. Walia, would also counter the new chief of the Delhi unit Madan Lal Khurana.

— Kota Neelima, Delhi

Himachal Pradesh: About an Ally

In the primarily two party state, the only third force is Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) of Sukh Ram. Part of the outgoing BJP-led government, he is now extending olive leaves to the Congress to contest the February state Assembly elections.

But staunch opposition by former Chief Minister and Congress Legislature Party (CLP) leader Virbhadra Singh to any tie-up with HVC has put a serious question mark over the strategic move, and consequently Congress’s chances at regaining power.

The senior leaders in Delhi, meanwhile, being coaxed by Himachal Pradesh Congress Committee President Vidya Stokes who advocates a pre-poll alliance with the HVC minus Sukh Ram, is striving for some arrangement. ‘‘Sukh Ram is a finished force in HP. He wants the alliance for his political survival alone and it will prove damaging to the Congress,’’ asserts Singh saying the Congress will go single-handedly to the elections and will bag two-third majority. ‘‘I am open to an alliance with secular parties including CPI (M), Samajwadi Party, Janta Dal or BSP,’’ he adds in haste.

‘‘I know he is against me but in the prevailing circumstances when victory in the hill state has become mandatory for Congress, I do not rule out a change of mind,’’ is Sukh Ram’s take.

Observers point out that Stokes would be the natural beneficiary if she succeeds in bringing Ram back to the Congress fold. The state, with 25 per cent dalit votes, is also witnessing another churning with dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti Party vigorously campaigning in the state for almost half of the seats.

— Dharmendra Rataul, Shimla

Nagaland, Meghalaya & Tripura: Political Unrest

The three sisters of the North-east are going to the polls in February, and the Congress is in power only in Nagaland. In Tripura, it has been out of power for ten years, while in Meghalaya, it is currently part of a seven-party coalition headed by the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

In fact, Meghalaya Chief Minister F.A. Khonglam incidentally is the lone independent CM in the whole of India. But in all likelihood, he will contest as an NCP candidate in the forthcoming elections.

In Nagaland, Chief Minister S.C. Jamir is known as the ‘‘boss’’ in the Nagaland Congress, and his detractors allege that anybody daring to question him is shown the door promptly. They point out to two recent expulsions: that of home minister N. Rio and power minister K. Theriey. For Jamir, sailing the Congress through the elections was an easy task in 1998, when the NSCN called for a boycott of the elections.

But today, backfiring at him is the same NSCN factor, post the Centre’s dialogue with Naga leaders. ‘‘There have been reports that the NSCN(I-M) will extend support to non-Congress candidates. If that is true then it is definitely bad,’’ says Jamir exposing his worst fear.

In Tripura, the Congress is in a much more weak wicket. Out of power for over a decade now, there has been a lot of infighting over who will lead the party in the forthcoming elections. There has been a tussle for leadership between two former chief ministers, Sudhir Ranjan Mazumdar and Samir Ranjan Barman, and both of them are currently camping in New Delhi.

The party has entered into an alliance with the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT). Mazumdar says the Congress has already allotted 18 seats to the INPT, keeping 42 for itself, and that should be taking care of the elections. ‘‘While we will concentrate in the plain districts, our partner will check the Left in the tribal constituencies,’’ Mazumdar claims.

In Meghalaya, the Congress is determined to go it alone despite the fact that it is currently a major partner in the ruling coalition. The Congress, with 16 MLAs is part of the seven-party coalition headed by F.A. Khonglam. The NCP is the other ally with 14 MLAs, but it is NCP general secretary P.A. Sangma who has been calling the shots from outside, even offering

— Samudra Gupta Kashyap, Guwahati