Mumbai recorded the warmest days of the year on March 4 and 5, with maximum temperatures crossing the 38°C mark for two consecutive days, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue the season’s first heatwave alert earlier this week.
According to the IMD, hot and humid conditions are expected to persist in Mumbai until the morning of March 7. A heatwave warning for the city is typically issued when the maximum temperature exceeds 37°C for two consecutive days.
On March 4, the city recorded a maximum temperature of 38.7°C, making it the hottest day of the year so far. The following day, temperatures climbed further to 38.9°C. On both days, temperatures were significantly above normal — by 5.7°C and 5.9°C, respectively.
Normally, Mumbai’s daytime temperature crosses the 35–36°C mark only after around March 10. However, IMD data show that this is the first time in nearly a decade that the city has recorded such high temperatures within the first week of March.
Historical records indicate that the highest temperature recorded in March over the past decade was 41°C on March 26, 2018, followed by 40.8°C on March 26, 2015, and 40.3°C on March 26, 2019.
Transition from La Niña to El Niño
Weather experts attribute the early surge in temperatures to a transitional phase in global weather patterns.
Gufran Beig, chair professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies and affiliated with the Indian Institute of Science, said India is currently transitioning from La Niña to El Niño.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, marked by fluctuations in sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that influence weather patterns worldwide.
“Usually this is a transitional phase, which is why large parts of north India are also seeing rising temperatures. In places like Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, daytime temperatures began climbing as early as February, and a similar trend is now being seen in Mumbai as well. This phenomenon is closely linked to global climate change,” Beig told The Indian Express.
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Anticyclonic circulation adds to heat
Meteorologists also attribute the temperature spike to an anticyclonic circulation over Gujarat, which has influenced weather conditions along the western coast.
An anticyclonic circulation refers to a large-scale wind pattern rotating around a region of high atmospheric pressure, typically associated with sinking, dry air. Such systems tend to suppress cloud formation and rainfall, leading to hot and dry conditions.
“This kind of rise in daytime temperature is typical during seasonal transition periods. The anticyclone over Gujarat has slowed the onset of the sea breeze over Mumbai by several hours,” an IMD official said. “As a result, warm air persists over the city for longer during the day, causing temperatures to climb.”
Relief unlikely in the coming days
In its latest five-day forecast, the IMD said hot and humid conditions are likely to continue until March 7, with another possible spike in temperatures after March 11.
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Officials said the continued presence of dry northerly winds and relatively low moisture levels over the Mumbai Metropolitan Region could lead to further temperature surges in the coming days.
Pratip Acharya is a seasoned journalist based in Mumbai reporting for The Indian Express. With a career spanning over a decade, his work demonstrates strong Expertise and Authority in critical urban issues, civic affairs, and electoral politics across Eastern and Western India.
Expertise & Authority
Current Role: Journalist, The Indian Express (IE), reporting from Mumbai.
Core Authority: Pratip's reporting focuses sharply on local democracy and development, specializing in:
Urban Governance and Civic Affairs: Providing in-depth analysis of municipal decision-making, city planning, and local infrastructure, essential for informed urban reporting.
City Politics and Environment: Covering the political dynamics of Mumbai and surrounding areas, alongside critical environmental challenges impacting the metro region.
Electoral Coverage (High-Stakes Experience): He has extensive experience in high-stakes political reporting, having covered major elections, establishing his Trustworthiness in political analysis:
National: Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019.
State: West Bengal Assembly elections in 2016 and Maharashtra Assembly elections in 2019.
Major Assignments (Ground Reporting): Pratip demonstrated commitment during crises by conducting ground reporting throughout the Covid-19 pandemic since its breakout in 2020, offering first-hand accounts and analysis of the public health crisis.
Experience
Extensive Experience: Starting his career in 2014, Pratip has built his foundation across multiple prominent English dailies:
Started at The Times of India in Kolkata (2014).
Relocated to Mumbai (2016) and worked with The Free Press Journal and Hindustan Times before joining The Indian Express.
Pratip Acharya's diverse experience across major publications, coupled with his specialized focus on the intricate details of urban governance and a track record of covering major electoral and health crises, establishes him as a trusted and authoritative source for news from India's critical metropolitan centres. ... Read More
