Daily Briefing: Exit polls predict BJP push in Bengal, UDF surge in Kerala, status quo in Assam, Tamil Nadu

With that, let’s move on to the top stories from today’s edition:

• Votes are in, exit polls predict tight contests
• Express Adda with Ruchir Sharma
• Invention of the Moonball

🚨 Big Story

With the Assembly elections across West Bengal, Assam, and Kerala coming to an end, most exit polls have predicted a tight contest in the former state with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having a clear edge over the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC). Pollsters have also forecast a decisive lead for the ruling BJP in Assam, and a change of guard in Kerala with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) projected to make a comeback. These projections underscore a broader political pattern where regional parties such as the DMK and TMC continue to hold their core bases, even as the BJP pushes towards newer geographies.

Unusual: A normal polling day in Bengal on Wednesday turned out to be slightly unusual, with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee visiting a booth in the Chetla area, and alleging that several police observers, who came from “outside Bengal”, were “acting at the BJP’s directions”. She also met her close aide and Mayor Firhad Hakim, contesting the Assembly elections. From Chetla, Banerjee headed to Chakraberia in her own Bhabanipur constituency, where she met TMC councillor Ashim Basu, who alleged that Central forces had barged into his home late Tuesday night.

Now, moving on to the talk of the town: Over 27 lakh voters in Bengal, whose names were struck off electoral rolls due to “logical discrepancies” in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, watched polling day pass them by unable to vote, uncertain about their appeals, and with no clear answer on whether additional documents proving their identity can even be submitted. So far, fewer than 2,000 of the 34 lakh-odd pending appeals against exclusions and inclusions carried out by judicial officers had been cleared by the 19 Appellate Tribunals appointed on Supreme Court orders in March.

⚡ Only in Express

“… India looks devoid of any AI “play”, which has made foreign investors “indifferent” towards the Indian markets.”

In the latest edition of Express Adda, global investor, author, and chairman of Rockefeller International, Ruchir Sharma explains how the monomaniacal focus on artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the crucial reasons foreign investment is not entering India in the present times. According to Sharma, foreign capital has become concentrated in the current world, with only a few countries on the front foot in the AI race: the US and Japan among developed economies, and South Korea and Taiwan among the emerging markets.

📰 From the Front Page

Post-exit recall: Shocked by the exit of seven of its Rajya Sabha members — six of them from Punjab — who joined the BJP, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the state staged a show of strength on Wednesday at Shahpur in Jalandhar district. During the event, Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann announced that he would be meeting President Droupadi Murmu on May 5 to seek the “recall” of the MPs since they had been elected by AAP MLAs who, in turn, had been elected by the people of Punjab.

Defending the rupee: The rupee’s value has emerged as a key pain point for the Indian economy since the war began in West Asia. After closing around 91-per-dollar on February 27, the rupee fell by as much as 4.5 per cent to 95.24 in March, leading the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to curb speculative bets and help it gain some ground. New RBI data shows Indian traders settled more than Rs 14,000 crore of imports in rupees in February this year. This is a significant sum as it comes at a time when the rupee has been under extreme pressure due to foreign investors dumping billions of dollars of Indian stocks and debt, forcing the RBI to defend the currency through a variety of instruments.

📌 Must Read

Racing the sun: As house listing operations are underway across India as part of Phase 1 of the Census 2027 since April 16, over 1 lakh enumerators — mostly teachers — have been engaged for door-to-door enumeration to map buildings and collect data on amenities using a mobile app. The heat in Odisha, however, is a cause for concern, leading these enumerators to carry with them water bottles, and a few packets of ORS. This comes amid reports of the death of two enumerators allegedly due to ‘heatstroke’ and the assault on women Census officers in Dhenkanal district.

In our Opinion section today, Rohit Chandra delves into the impact of the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on global oil markets in the long run. Chandra writes: “So while the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC does not need to trigger any knee-jerk policy reactions, it should provoke India to think more deeply about which clubs it wants to be a part of, and where it should use its diplomatic and commercial capital to enhance its energy security. The UAE seems to have made its choices. But so far, India seems to be sitting on the fence.”

Weakening: UAE’s exit from OPEC is likely to weaken the powerful cartel’s ability to influence global oil supply and prices as it did for decades. And that may be a good thing for large oil importers such as India, which is the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil which depends on imports to meet nearly 89% of its requirement. The exit is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices in the longer term. This suggests that the UAE wants to produce as much oil as possible, even in a low oil price environment. It would mark a divergence from the years of production quotas enforced by OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, to influence oil prices. Here’s what it means for the world.

⏳ And Finally…

In the early 1980s, Franklyn Stephenson, an ambitious fast bowler from West Indies decided to invert his learned fast bouncers with bowling a slower one when trying to bowl fast. No one would teach him, because no one knew it. He discovered a rare, natural gift – the moonball. “I could change the grip during my run-up. When I ran in, I held the ball like I would normally — index and middle finger slightly apart but still on the seam. The batsman had a full view of the ball. Just before the leap, I slipped my index finger down and tweaked the ball with middle and index fingers, like an off-spinner,” he shares with The Indian Express. The Moonball continues to inspire many to slow bowl till date, such as door-knobbed floaters of Jasprit Bumrah.

🎧 Lastly, don’t forget to tune in to today’s episode of our 3 Things podcast, where we discuss AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal’s refusal to appear before the Delhi High Court in excise policy case. We also talk about the impact of the West Asia war on Indian agriculture, as well as delve into the case of a man carrying his deceased sister’s skeletal remains to a bank branch to prove her death and claim her savings.

That’s all for today. Have a wonderful day!

Until next time,
Ariba

Business As Usual by E P Unny