3 min readJul 3, 2026 07:42 PM IST
First published on: Jul 3, 2026 at 07:42 PM IST
Increased events of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other kinds of extreme events are likely to affect many parts of the world owing to the strengthening of the El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the World Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
El Nino — a naturally occurring ocean-atmospheric phenomenon wherein warmer-than-normal ocean conditions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean prevail — emerged in June. According to the WMO, the intensity of El Nino is set to rise during the coming months.
El Nino years in the past have seen extreme events. Over India, it has been generally associated with heatwave and below-average rainfall. Even before the effects of El Nino are pronounced, India experienced its 5th driest June in 126 years. The monsoon rainfall has largely, in this season so far, remained subdued. The monsoon onset has also remained significantly delayed, with the latest regions covered including New Delhi where the onset was marked on Thursday.
” El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General.
Multiple weather models and the WMO’s global seasonal update has confirmed that El Nino will intensify into a ‘strong’ El Nino during July and September. For India, this period is crucial as the southwest monsoon season is currently underway and the actual effects of El Nino will start emerging.
The global forecasts also suggest that the current El Nino is here to stay and extend till the end of this year, around when its peak intensity is expected to unfold.
Adding to the developing El Nino, what could also dampen the rainfall over India is the parallelly warming Indian Ocean.
The WMO said, ” Above-normal temperatures are also predicted for the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. There is a likelihood of below-normal rainfall across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and most of Australia.”
For July, IMD has yet again forecast below-normal rainfall. The country is expected to receive below-average rain, which is about 94 per cent of the 280mm ( the Long Period Average for July). July is the crucial month for the kharif sowing and this month is when the highest rainfall quantum is recorded over the country.
As of July 3, the country-wide rainfall deficit was 30 per cent.
El Niño affects global weather and is known to cause extreme heat, drought and below average rainfall.(Credits: Pexels) 
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