With the southwest monsoon still lingering, the onset of the northeast monsoon, which brings rain over the southern peninsula, will be delayed this year.
India receives rain from two monsoons — the southwest monsoon between June and September followed by the northeast monsoon, which is restricted over the southern peninsula between October and December. Tamil Nadu, parts of Andhra Pradesh and Pudducherry receive their annual rain quota from the latter monsoon.
Under normal circumstances, the southwest monsoon would completely withdraw from over most parts of the country by October 15. “Though October 15 is the normal date for completion of withdrawal from the entire country, there is an accepted deviation of seven days. That is, if the withdrawal is completed from the entire country by October 22, it is still considered as normal. But this year, it is unlikely to occur by October 22,” said IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. “Unless the southwest monsoon withdraws completely, the northeast monsoon cannot commence.”
The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has remained stagnant since October 6. As on Tuesday, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continued to pass along Faizabad, Fatehpur, Nowgong, Ratlam and Porbandar.
The delay was mainly due to the formation of two low pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. One system formed last week and had traversed across the southern peninsula, causing widespread rain and left behind a trail of destruction. Another low pressure system developed on October 19 and continues to remain in the Bay of Bengal.
Between October 1 and 20, the country recorded 8 per cent surplus rain — most of it recorded over the south and eastern states owing to this weather system. However on Tuesday, the IMD said conditions for the withdrawal to resume were likely to develop this week. “The southwest monsoon could further retreat from remaining parts of UP, Bihar, Sikkim, Jharkhand and rest of MP, Gujarat and north Maharashtra within the next two to three days,” an official from the Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai said.
According to the IMD, the normal date for onset of winter monsoon is October 20.
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