THE NORTHEAST monsoon or winter monsoon this year is expected to be normal with rainfall expected between 89 per cent and 111 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Northeast monsoon is the main source of water supply for many southern states of India, especially Tamil Nadu, which receives 48 per cent of its annual rainfall from it. For the coastal districts here, the rainfall dependence ranges up to 60 per cent while in the interior districts it is anywhere between 40 per cent and 50 per cent of the annual rainfall, according to officials at IMD.
This rainfall is also important for interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep, which primarily get rain from Southwest monsoon. Winter monsoon, between October and December, contributes about 20 per cent of the annual rainfall.
Similar forecasts were issued at the 11th edition of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) held last month in the Maldives. Though global weather experts expect the upcoming monsoon season to be slightly below normal in Tamil Nadu and northern regions of neighbouring Sri Lanka, the overall rainfall is stated to be normal.
According to experts at IMD, a slightly below normal rainfall in TN will not have any adverse effect. Traditionally, TN does not receive much rain from the Southwest monsoon but this year it was different. As on September 30, Tamil Nadu is among the two which were in the “excess” rainfall category, having received 31 per cent surplus rainfall. “With water stock in a good position for the TN, agriculture activities will not be largely hampered,”
said D Sivananda Pai, head of Climate Prediction and Climate Research division at IMD.