Will the Dravidian wheel of fortune turn in AIADMK’s favour? As EPS is named party’s chief ministerial face, a 210-seat bet against Stalin

The numbers

At the heart of his nearly hour-long address was a numerical argument that sought to turn the 2024 Lok Sabha result into a springboard for 2026. Citing the vote share of the AIADMK and its now ally, the BJP, he said, “Today, BJP and AIADMK have formed an alliance. Combine the votes… it is 41.33%. If you calculate based on that 41.33%, we lead in 84 Assembly constituencies. All these are assured wins.”

He claimed that in “15 constituencies, the deficit is only 1%” and in 18 more, it was between one and two percentage points. On that basis, he told the gathering, “In the upcoming election, the AIADMK alliance will win 210 seats.”

One resolution formally recorded that projection and reiterated that the AIADMK would “anchor an NDA-led alliance” to “defeat the ‘sleeping’ DMK government” in 2026. Another vested Palaniswami with complete control over alliance architecture and seat sharing, reflecting – in the party’s own words – the “unshakable trust” cadres place in his leadership and “proven administrative capability.”

Much of the speech was devoted to a blistering personal and political attack on Chief Minister M K Stalin. Recalling the tumultuous 2017 trust vote, Palaniswami said DMK MLAs had “danced on my table” and dragged the Speaker from his chair. He then turned to Stalin directly: “On that day you tore only your shirt – after next year’s election, when the AIADMK alliance wins the majority of seats and AIADMK forms the government on its own, I do not know in what state you will be.”

He framed the coming contest as part of a longer Dravidian turn of fortune. “The wheel keeps turning; the one below will rise,” he said, pointing to election cycles in which the DMK had been reduced to two Assembly seats or failed to win a single Lok Sabha constituency. By contrast, he argued, “even today, DMK cannot criticise our governance.”

Attack on DMK

The resolutions passed alongside his speech offered a structured attack on that DMK governance record. One resolution accused the government of “complete lack of preparedness” during four consecutive monsoons and of forcing citizens to “fend for themselves” amid floods, citing clogged drains, absent equipment and delayed relief. Another welcomed the ongoing Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls and alleged “unnatural and disproportionate” increases in voter numbers in DMK strongholds, echoing Palaniswami’s charge that “Stalin screams whenever SIR is mentioned – because they won through bogus votes.”

A detailed economic resolution warned of “investment flight” to Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat and said rising youth unemployment, MSME closures and an unprecedented debt burden of over Rs 8.5 lakh crore had pushed Tamil Nadu’s finances to “breaking point.” Separate resolutions flagged an “alarming rise” in crimes against women, a “total collapse” of law and order, and what they called an “empire of corruption” sustained by ministerial kickbacks, tender manipulation and disproportionate assets in the ruling family.

The Council also accused the DMK of distorting Tamil Nadu’s legacy of social justice, undermining protections for Scheduled Castes, and allowing caste discrimination to “steadily increase.” It faulted the government for stalling major water and infrastructure schemes – from river-linking projects to drinking water pipelines and bridges – while pasting party stickers on AIADMK-era projects.

Palaniswami, for his part, tried to set the AIADMK up as both a moral and organisational contrast to the DMK. “DMK, formed by Anna, has become one family of Karunanidhi; it has become a corporate company,” he said, before insisting, “AIADMK is a democratic movement. If you work loyally, you can reach the highest posts.” Even a branch secretary, he said, could one day become general secretary or chief minister.

Quoting Jayalalithaa’s assurance that the AIADMK would work for the people “even after centuries,” he urged cadres to behave like “bees and ants” in the coming months – relentless, organised and focused on getting every possible vote to the booth.