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In Tamil Nadu, voting across all 234 assembly constituencies took place on April 23, with the state seeing a strong voter turnout of over 85% (Credits: PTI/ File Photo)
The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin returned from a four-day holiday in Kodaikanal on April 29, following the release of exit poll projections. A high-level meeting with senior DMK leaders was held at the party headquarters.
Exit poll figures for Tamil Nadu’s high-stakes Assembly election were released on April 29, giving projections of seats and voting percentages among the DMK-led alliance, the AIADMK, Seeman-led NTK, and actor Vijay’s TVK. Most exit polls for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections indicated that the DMK alliance will comfortably retain power, but one major poll has projected that Vijay’s TVK will emerge the single largest party in a triangular contest that also includes the AIADMK+.
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Polling was held across Tamil Nadu on April 23 for all 234 Assembly seats, with over 4,000 candidates contesting. The state recorded a voter turnout of 84.6 per cent, the highest since the 1952 elections.
The total electorate stood at around 5.73 crore, including over 2.93 crore women and 2.83 crore men. Third-gender voters accounted for about 7,728.
Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2026
Exit Polls Out
Tamil Nadu election exit poll 2026 DMK edge, AIADMK challenge
Voting Apr 23 Single phase · 234 seats
Exit Polls Apr 29 Released Wednesday evening
Counting May 4 Results declared
DMK+ MK Stalin
AIADMK Edappadi K Palaniswami
TVK Vijay
Others 1-5 in Poll of Polls
2026 Exit Polls — Poll of Polls
112-129 DMK+ edge near majority
86-103 AIADMK comeback chance
13-19 TVK big unknown
1-5 Others marginal role
Halfway mark: 118. Most polls released Wednesday evening gave the ruling DMK-led alliance an edge, while two projected an AIADMK comeback. TVK's range across surveys runs from zero to 40 seats.
Poll of Polls AVG
DMK+
112-129AIADMK
86-103TVK
13-19Others
1-5118 — MAJORITY MARK DMK range straddles majority
Praja Poll widest pro-DMK projection
DMK+
148-168AIADMK
61-81TVK
0Others
1-9P-Marq
DMK+
125-145AIADMK
65-85TVK
16-26Others
1-6Matrize
DMK+
122-132AIADMK
87-100TVK
10-12Others
0-6Peoples Pulse
DMK+
125-145AIADMK
65-80TVK
18-24Others
2-6Peoples Insight strongest TVK projection
DMK+
120-140AIADMK
60-70TVK
30-40Others
0-4JVC Exit Poll AIADMK ahead
AIADMK
128-147DMK+
75-95TVK
8-15Others
0Vote Vibe AIADMK ahead
AIADMK
114-124DMK+
103-113TVK
4-10Others
0What the Exit Polls Suggest
Scenario 1 DMK may have held on
Most surveys give the ruling alliance an edge despite anti-incumbency and a more crowded field. The Poll of Polls keeps DMK within striking distance of the 118-seat majority mark.
Scenario 2 AIADMK comeback cannot be ruled out
JVC and Vote Vibe point in the opposite direction, placing the opposition ahead. If those trends hold, AIADMK may have performed far better than expected.
Scenario 3 TVK is the largest unknown
Vijay's TVK ranges from zero seats in one poll to 30-40 in another, showing uncertainty over whether crowds and youth appeal have converted into constituency wins.
The final result may depend on close contests across western Tamil Nadu, Chennai and its adjoining urban belt, and seats where TVK may have cut into the vote bases of both Dravidian parties.
2021 Assembly Election — Final Results
DMK+ MK Stalin
Seats
159
Vote %
~47%
AIADMK+ EPS / Palaniswami
Seats
75
Vote %
~33%
NTK Seeman
Seats
0
Vote %
~7%
Campaign Battlegrounds
Wildcard TVK's electoral debut
Vijay's party is contesting all 234 seats, making its vote transfer and seat conversion the biggest uncertainty in the race.
DMK Welfare vs anti-incumbency
The ruling alliance is banking on welfare schemes and Dravidian identity while facing attacks over corruption and unemployment.
AIADMK Opposition consolidation
Exit polls showing an AIADMK edge suggest the opposition may have consolidated in key regions, especially if close contests break its way.
Express InfoGenIE
Source: Exit poll projections provided in editorial input | Updated: 29 Apr 2026
2021 exit poll accuracy: In 2021, exit polls predicted that the DMK would unseat the then-ruling AIADMK. While three surveys estimated that the DMK would win between 143 and 152 seats, several others overestimated the party’s performance, with India Today-Axis My India projecting as many as 175 to 195 seats.
Key Contenders: The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam front are the key players in the Tamil Nadu elections, alongside other parties.
The DMK has projected Udhayanidhi Stalin as the face of the next generation in these elections. The party has fielded several new faces, especially in the constituencies it lost in 2021. It has announced a total of 164 candidates out of 234 constituencies.
The DMK-led alliance includes DMDK, led by Premalatha Vijayakanth, which has been allotted 10 seats.
The AIADMK is contesting 172 seats, while the AMMK, led by TTV Dhinakaran, is contesting 11 seats. The BJP has been allotted 33 seats, while the PMK is divided between rival factions.
While the BJP and Makkal Needhi Maiam are attempting to win over DMK’s stronghold in Chennai, the AIADMK’s win in the western belt remains crucial.
Past trends: With power alternating between the DMK and AIADMK, Tamil Nadu has witnessed the dominance of Dravidian politics for the past 37 years. The entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party TVK has gained traction in the state’s political landscape.
Some of the key candidates include Chief Minister and DMK leader MK Stalin from Kolathur, Edappadi K Palaniswami from Edappadi, TVK president Vijay from Perambur and Tiruchirappalli (East), and NTK leader Seeman from Karaikudi.
Live Updates
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: ‘NDA will form next government in Tamil Nadu,’ says Minister Murugan
Union Minister L Murugan claimed that NDA will form the next government.
"Wait for three more days; Tamil Nadu will see a major change, with the NDA forming the next government," Murugan said.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Today's Chanakya exit poll projections
Today's Chanakya exit poll projections showed DMK for the win in Tamil Nadu.
AIADMK+ 27% ± 3%
DMK+ 39% ± 3%
TVK 30% ± 3%
Others 4% ± 3%
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Vijay’s TVK emerges frontrunner in Axis My India survey
Axis My India was the only exit poll to project Vijay's TVK as a potential winner. The survey estimated that TVK could secure between 98 and 120 seats, followed by the DMK with 92 to 110 seats, and the AIADMK with 22 to 32 seats.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Exit polls project DMK win, AIADMK trails
Exit polls released on Wednesday projected likely victory for the DMK.
DMK is estimated to win between 112 and 129 seats, while the AIADMK is projected to secure 86 to 103 seats.
Vijay's TVK is expected to win 13 to 19 seats, while others may account for 1 to 5 seats.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: 'BJP won’t form government in five states,' Congress leader
Following the exit poll projections, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Congress Screening Committee Chairman TS Sahadev said the BJP will not be able to form a government in any of the five states.
"In Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, the BJP is in alliance with the AIADMK, while on the other side, there is an alliance with the AINRC. In Puducherry, there was an anti incumbency mood against the present AINRC government," Sahadev said.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Stalin back from Kodaikanal, chairs high-level DMK meeting
The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin returned from a four-day holiday in Kodaikanal on April 29, following the release of exit poll projections. A high-level meeting with senior DMK leaders was held at the party headquarters.
The meeting was attended by key leaders, including DMK general secretary Durai Murugan and ministers such as MRK Panneerselvam and EV Velu among others.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: 'DMK likely to get clear majority in Tamil Nadu,' Kharge
Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge said that DMK is likely to secure a clear majority in Tamil Nadu.
"Exit poll results are shown clearly for some places, but some results have created confusion. But I feel DMK will get a clear majority in Tail Nadu, I have also spoken to people there," Kharge said.
On Puducherry Kharge said the alliance has fought equally against the BJP and N R Congress.
"We have expectations from Puducherry as well. There was a tough fight there; lets wait and see for a couple of days," he added.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: TVK leader Sengottaiyan rejects exit polls, predicts 200-plus seats for party
TVK leader K A Sengottaiyan on Thursday rejected the findings of various exit polls for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, asserting that the survey outcomes are inconsistent and fail to capture a massive groundswell of support for his party.
"He (Vijay) will win in 200 seats and he will rule Tamil Nadu. This has already been decided by the people," Sengottaiyan said.
Predicting a landslide win, the senior leader stated that the state is on the verge of a historic political shift that defies current projections. -- PTI
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: BJP's Tamilisai cautious, AIADMK expresses confidence of victory
As Tamil Nadu Exit Polls sparked political debates, BJP leader Tamilisai Soundararajan said conclusions should not be drawn until the finals offical results.
"The exit polls are not exact. When the exact polls come, we can comment. I don't want to comment on it," ANI quoted her as saying.
AIADMK candidate from Erode East Assembly constituency Manoharan was confident that his party would win. "AIADMK will definitely win 190 to 200 seats and form the government under the leadership of Edappadi K.Palaniswami. The projects brought by the AIADMK government have been shelved by the DMK government. We sought votes by promising that the shelved projects will be implemented as soon as the AIADMK government comes to power again," ANI quoted him as saying.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: What happend if TVK's 35% vote share was overstated?
The most dramatic poll came from NDTV-Axis My India, which projected actor-turned-politician Vijay’s fledgling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) at 98 to 120 seats, enough to place the newcomer within striking distance of power in the 234-member Assembly. It also gave TVK roughly 35% vote share, level with the ruling DMK alliance, while placing the AIADMK-BJP combine at 23%.
The numbers electrified television studios. They also raised eyebrows.
Axis My India’s chairman, Pradeep Gupta, when pressed on air about why his poll alone showed such a surge for TVK, conceded the tally could “come down to 70” seats, a notable caveat for a projection whose upper bound was 120.
If TVK’s estimated 35% vote share as per the Axis My India poll was overstated by even 7 percentage points, and those votes were to be spread between the two established Dravidian camps, the map changes quickly. The DMK alliance would rise to around 38.5%, while the AIADMK-led bloc could move toward 26.5%, leaving TVK near 28%.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: 'Trust results on May 4,’ Tamilisai on exit polls
"Exit polls are not the exact polls, we should wait for the exact polls on May 4," said BJP leader Tamilisai Soundarajan. She said that exit polls are not always based on authenticated procedures.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Exit polls don't reflect ground reality, says AIADMK MP Inbadurai
"We do no believe exit polls, as they do not reflect the real picture," said Inbadurai, an AIADMK Rajya Sabha MP. Inbadurai said that exit polls are based on limited samples and "fail to capture the actual mood of voters."
"If you look at past trends, in 2011, a slim majority was predicted for the AIADMK, but we secured a landslide victory with 203 seats. In 2016 as well, some agencies predicted a lead for DMK, but the outcome was different, with AIADMK retaining power," he added.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: 'TVK drawing votes at the expense of AIADMK', DMK spokesperson
DMK spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai said the exit poll projections are 'conservative'. He said, "We are very confident that we will get over 180 seats."
He also said that DMK will form the next government and claimed that the TVK is drawing votes at the expense of the AIADMK.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: 'Exit polls can’t reflect people’s true mood' says BJP leader Selvam
"Exit polls can be taken but exit polls can never be able to 100 pc predict the real mindset of the common man. Today the common man has spoken," said BJP leader Vinoj P Selvam.
He added that the high voter turnout on April 23 indicates that Tamil Nadu wants the DMK government out. He claimed that the NDA will return to power in the state and that Edappadi K Palaniswami will lead Tamil Nadu to 'greater glory'.
(PTI)
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Vote Vibe exit poll projections
Vote Vibe projects AIADMK to win.
AIADMK 114–124
DMK+ 103–113
TVK 4–10
OTH 0-0
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: TVK’s impact still unclear
Exit poll predictions suggest that Vijay's TVK has emerged as the most uncertain variable in the Tamil Nadu elections. Most surveys projected TVK to win around 10 to 15 seats.
But Axis My India projected a significantly higher seat range of 98 to 120 for the party, indicating a wide variation in overall forecasts.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Kamakhya Analytics indicated a NRC alliance win in Puducherry
Kamakhya Analytics projects Puducherry exit poll.
NRC+ 17-24
CONG+ 4-7
TVK+ 1-2
OTH 0-1
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Vijay's TVK to win 98 to 120 seats?
Axis My India predicts Vijay's TVK to win 98 to 120 seats
DMK+ 92-110
TVK 98-120
AIADMK 22-32
NTK 0-0
OTH 0-0
Post 10 of 10 - Tamil Nadu - Exit Poll - Overall Seat Share (234 Seats) & Vote Share (%)#tamilnaduelections2026#exitpoll#axismyindia
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) April 29, 2026
@pradeepgupta_ami pic.twitter.com/rlLm6u6Btl
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Praja poll exit poll predictions
Puducherry exit poll prediction by Praja poll.
NRC+ 19-25
CONG+ 6-10
TVK+ 0-0
OTH 0-0
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Exit poll signals second term for MK Stalin’s government
Matrize predicted a win for the DMK led alliance win in Tamil Nadu. The exit poll indicated that MK Stalin's DMK would secure a majority and remain in power.
According to the survey, the DMK alliance is projected to win between 122 to 132 seats, while the AIADMK aligned with NDA, could secure 87 to 100 seats. Actor-turned politician Vijay's TVK is estimated to win around 10 to 12 seats.
तमिलनाडु का एग्जिट पोल सामने आया है. मैटराइज न्यूज के EXIT पोल के मुताबिक, मुख्यमंत्री एम.के. स्टालिन के नेतृत्व वाले DMK गठबंधन को बहुमत मिलत सकता है.
— Matrize News Communications Pvt. Ltd (@Matrize_NC)
एग्जिट पोल के अनुसार, DMK+ गठबंधन को 122 से 132 सीटें मिल सकती हैं, वहीं, NDA गठबंधन AIADMK को 87 से 100 सीटें मिल सकती हैं.… pic.twitter.com/RBr6jjPw8L
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Exit poll prediction by Praja Poll
Praja Poll predictions for the exit polls.
DMK+ 148-168
AIADMK+ 61-81
TVK+ 1-9
OTH 0-0
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Peoples Insight exit poll predictions
Exit poll predictions by Peoples Insight survey.
DMK+ 120-140
AIADMK+ 60-70
TVK+ 30-40
OTH 0-4
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: P-Marq survey predictions for Tamil Nadu polls
P-Marq predictions for the exit polls.
DMK+ 125-145
AIADMK+ 65-85
TVK+ 16-26
OTH 1-6
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: JVC survey predicts AIADMK win in Tamil Nadu
JVC has made the following predictions for the exit polls.
DMK+ 75-95
AIADMK+ 128-147
TVK+ 8-15
OTH 0-0
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Matrize projects a DMK win
Matrize survey projects exit poll predictions.
DMK+ 122-132
AIADMK+ 87-100
TVK+ 10-12
OTH 0-6
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Next Puducherry CM?
Axis My India projects CM predictions following the exit polls.
Post 8 of 9 - Puducherry - Exit Poll - Preferred CM#puducherryelections2026#exitpoll#axismyindia
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) April 29, 2026
@pradeepgupta_ami pic.twitter.com/H5h4tvR7s2
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Axis My India projects Puducherry exit poll
Exit poll predictions for Puducherry
NRC+ 16-20
CONG+ 6-8
TVK+ 2-4
OTH 1-3
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: People's Pulse predictions
People's Pulse has made the following predictions for the Tamil Nadu exit polls
DMK 125 -145
AIADMK 65-80
TVK 18-24
Others 2-6
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Exit polls nailed DMK win in 2021 elections
Previous exit polls had accurately predicted that the DMK would secure a majority in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Will Vijay’s entry adds new twist
Over the past 37 years, Tamil Nadu has witnessed the dominance of Dravidian politics, with power alternating between the DMK and AIADMK.
In 2026, actor-turned-politician Vijay has made his political debut, gaining traction in the state's political landscape.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Is AIADMK rejoining NDA in hopes of making a comeback?
As the AIADMK led by Edappadi K Palaniswami, eyes a comeback in Tamil Nadu, the party after having split from the BJP-led NDA in September 2023 had rekindled its alliance with the bloc for the 2026 polls.
Key allies in the AIADMK-led front include the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), aligned with the NDA, and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), which joined the alliance in January 2026. On March 25, the AIADMK announced its final seat-sharing agreements with key partners, including the BJP, PMK and AMMK.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: DMK's SPA alliance and party startegies
The Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), led by the DMK includes key allies such as the Indian National Congress (INC), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).
Several smaller allies, including KMDK, MMK, MDMK, SDPI, MJK, MPP, and TDK, have contested under the DMK's 'Rising Sun' symbol as part of a startegy to maximise seat conversion. However, the Congress, VCK, CPI, and CPI (M) have contested under their own party symbols.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Flashback 2021 — DMK secured landslide victory in Tamil Nadu
In the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) won 159 of the 234 setas, forming the government in the state. MK Stalin was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) won 66 seats and became the principal opposition party. AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami assumed the post of Leader of the Opposition.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Over 4,000 candidates, results on May 4
A total of 4,023 candidates contested the 234 Assembly seats in Tamil Nadu. The fates of all the candidates will be decided on May 4, when the counting of votes begins. Tamil Nadu has around 5.73 crore registered voters, including 2.93 crore women and 2.83 crore men. Third-gender voters number approximately 7,728.
Polling was conducted across 33,133 locations, with around 75,064 booths set up across the state.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Tamil Nadu recorded 84.29% turnout, highest since 1952 elections
Tamil Nadu recorded a high voter turnout on April 23, marking one of the highest polling performances since 1952 elections.
At the close of voting, the state reported an overall turnout of 84.29% Tiruppur registered the highest turnout at 86.33%, followed by Namakkal at 87,63%. Erode and Salem followed with 87.59% and 88.02%, respectively.
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: Exit polls to be out soon
Welcome to Tamil Nadu exit poll live updates. The exit poll will analyse and indicate voting trends in high-stakes battle between the DMK-led alliance, the AIADMK, Seeman-led NTK, and actor Vijay's TVK.
Polling was held across the State on April 23 for all 234 Assembly seats. The counting of votes will take place on May 4.
Stay tuned here for the latest updates on the Tamil Nadu exit poll results.
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