The southwest monsoon, which hit the coast of Kerala two days behind its regular schedule on Thursday, is most likely to reach Goa and Maharashtra early next week, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
During the next 48 hours, the southwest monsoon is very likely to advance further into some more parts of the Central Arabian Sea, some parts of Maharashtra and Goa, remaining parts of Karnataka, some more parts of Andhra Pradesh, some parts of Telangana, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some more parts of central Bay of Bengal, some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal and northeast India.
As per the IMD, due to the strengthening of lower-level southwesterly winds, widespread rainfall activity is very likely over northeastern states during the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh on June 4-5; over Assam and Meghalaya from June 4-8; and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura between June 5-7.
The IMD said that under the influence of the off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra to south Kerala coast, and strengthening of westerly winds in lower tropospheric levels, widespread rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds with isolated heavy falls is very likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka during the next 24 hours.
Currently, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through lat.14°N/ Long. 60°E, lat. 14.5°N/ Long. 70°E, Karwar, Harapanahalli (Vijayanagaram district), Anantapur, Arogyavaram, Vellore, Nagapattinam, lat. 12°N/ Long. 83°E, 15°N/89°E and 18.5°N/94°E.
A western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lies over Jammu and its neighbourhood between 3.1 km and 5.8 km above mean sea level. A cyclonic circulation lies over southwest Uttar Pradesh and nearby areas. Under the influence of these systems, isolated to scattered rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds is very likely over parts of the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India during the next 24 hours.
Pune has been witnessing a cloudy and gloomy Saturday. This is in continuation to the overcast sky conditions that have prevailed since Friday. The city recorded moderate showers all through Friday. The 24-hour rainfall recorded here was Lohegaon (12.3mm), Pashan (7mm) and Shivajinagar (6.3mm).
“All these conditions combined with the orography of areas around the Sahyadri ranges, parts of Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra are experiencing heavy rain at isolated places,” said Anupam Kashyapi, head, weather forecasting division at IMD, Pune.
By Friday afternoon, the southwest monsoon had further advanced and covered Kerala, Lakshadweep, most parts of coastal and south interior Karnataka, some parts of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and remaining parts of the Bay of Bengal.
Thundershowers accompanied by lightning and gusty winds with speeds of 30 to 40 km/hour were experienced over the districts of Palghar, Thane, Mumbai, Raigad, Ratnagiri, Ahmednagar, Pune, Nashik, Jalgaon, Kolhapur, Satara, Sangli, Solapur, Aurangabad, Jalna, Beed and Osmanabad.
Light rainfall will continue over these districts on Saturday.
India receives over 70 per cent of its annual rainfall between June and September. This year, the Met department expects a normal-to-above-normal seasonal rainfall over the country. Quantitatively, the all-India rainfall has been projected at 101 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).