A new report released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) today has said that even if the present Paris Agreement commitments are met global temperatures are expected to rise by 3.2 degrees celsius b 2030. The report – UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap Report – says that unless global greenhouse emissions fall by 7.6 per cent annually between 2020 and 2030, “ the world will miss the opportunity to get on track towards the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.’
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that going beyond 1.5 degrees celsius means the “bringing of eve wider-ranging and more destructive climate impacts” including storm and heatwaves. The UN climate change conference is scheduled to b held in 2020 in Glasgow and will look at the Paris Agreement commitments
“Our collective failure to act early and hard on climate change means we now must deliver deep cuts to emissions – over 7 per cent each year if we break it down evenly over the next decade. This shows that countries simply cannot wait until the end of 2020, when new climate commitments are due, to step up action. They – and every city, region business and individual – need to act now. We need quick wins to reduce emissions as much as possible in 2020, then stronger Nationally Determined Contributions to kick-start the major transformations o economies and societies. If we don’t do this, the 1.5°C goal will b out of reach before 2030,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director
G20 nations collectively account for 78 per cent of all emissions, but only five G20 members have committed to a long-term zero-emission target. In the short-term, developed countries will have to reduce their emissions quicker than developing countries, for reasons o fairness and equity, says the report. Crucially, the report says al nations must substantially increase ambition in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as the Paris commitments are known in 2020 and follow up with policies and strategies to implement them
Each year, the Emissions Gap Report assesses the gap between anticipated emissions in 2030 and levels consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C targets of the Paris Agreement. The report finds that greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5 per cent per year over the last decade Emissions in 2018, including from land-use changes such deforestation, hit a new high of 55.3 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent
To limit temperatures, annual emissions in 2030 need to be 1 gigatonne of CO2 equivalent lower than current unconditional NDC imply for the 2°C goal; they need to be 32 gigatonnes lower for th 1.5°C goal. On an annual basis, this means cuts in emissions of 7. per cent per year from 2020 to 2030 to meet the 1.5°C goal and 2.7 per cent per year for the 2°C goal.