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Normal rainfall over most of South Asia this year: Climate Outlook Forum

The report states that above normal rainfall is likely along the Himalayan foothills, central and western India whereas normal rain is expected along most parts of India, including the southern peninsula, north Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Pakistan.

Written by Anjali Marar | Pune |
April 28, 2021 8:17:51 pm
The international experts pointed out that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions would prevail throughout the monsoon season. (File Photo)

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has forecast normal to above normal rainfall over most South Asian countries during the upcoming monsoon season between June and September.

The consensus report SASCOF-19 was prepared and released in consultation with global climate experts and meteorologists from South Asian countries following a virtual meet held from April 26 to 28. SASCOF is a forum of climate experts representing Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan along with expertise from members of the World Meteorological Organisation, Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early warning System, Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration.

The report states that above normal rainfall is likely along the Himalayan foothills, central and western India whereas normal rain is expected along most parts of India, including the southern peninsula, north Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Pakistan.

The SASCOF statement is in line with the first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) issued by the India Meteorological Department earlier this month.

Below normal rain is likely along southern Tamil Nadu, Jammu and Kashmir, Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, northeast India, Afghanistan and its adjoining areas of Pakistan and south Myanmar during the monsoon season this year, said experts of SASCOF.

The international experts pointed out that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions would prevail throughout the monsoon season. Described as the abnormal warming along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, years with El Nino have coincided with below normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season.

“Neutral ENSO conditions are favourable for normal monsoon rainfall over most of South Asia,” read the consensus statement.

South Asia, from June to September, could experience above normal minimum temperature whereas the maximum temperature here could range between normal to below normal during the four monsoon months, it said.

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