The country is likely to witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, a day after it announced onset of monsoon over Kerala. However, the country’s East and Northeast regions are likely to witness below normal rainfall, it said.
“Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 per cent of LPA). Quantitatively, the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent,” the IMD said. There is also a 43 per cent probability of normal monsoon, it added.
The department has kept its prediction of “normal” monsoon unchanged in its second stage long range forecast. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101 per cent of its long period average (LPA) during July, and 94 per cent of LPA during August — both with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent.
The IMD noted that anything between 90 and 96 per cent of the LPA is considered “below normal” while rainfall in the range of 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered “normal”. Further, rainfall is considered “deficient” if it is below 90 per cent of the LPA and “above normal” if it falls between 104 and 110 per cent of the LPA.
The IMD said that conditions are favourable for further advancement of monsoon into some areas of Northeastern states during the next 48 hours. Conditions are also likely to become favourable for further advancement of the southwest monsoon into more parts of the South Peninsula around June 3, it said. “Rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa from June 6,” the IMD said.